Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, ending the second quarter and first half of the year on a positive note. Gains were driven by solid labor market data and a continued rebound in the technology sector. Investors also repositioned their portfolios after a period marked by geopolitical tensions and concerns over massive artificial intelligence (AI) spending.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,496.51, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% to 26,213.72, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% and reached another record close at 52,317.81.
Market focus is now on this week’s U.S. employment data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. Inflation pressures, which had risen due to the spike in oil prices during the Iran conflict, have started to ease as oil prices retreat. However, if labor market data remains strong, the Fed will have less room to ease monetary policy.
The JOLTS report showed job openings rose to 7.594 million in May, above expectations of 7.296 million and the highest level since May 2024.
Among active movers, Strategy fell 6.2% after Michael Saylor’s company changed its long-standing policy of never selling Bitcoin. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index posted a quarterly gain of 87.8%, marking its best quarterly performance on record and highlighting the strength of the AI-driven semiconductor rally.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed at record highs on Tuesday and remained on track for strong quarterly gains. Positive sentiment was supported by investor optimism ahead of key economic data releases and speeches from global central bank officials.
The STOXX 600 rose 0.9% after climbing as much as 1.2% intraday and was on track for a 10.3% gain in the second quarter. Germany’s DAX gained 1.4%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 0.2%, France’s CAC 40 added 0.4%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB advanced 1.1%.
Investors are closely watching the European Central Bank’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal. Market participants are monitoring comments from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and Executive Board members Isabel Schnabel and Frank Elderson for guidance on the future path of Eurozone interest rates.
The forum will conclude with a highly anticipated policy panel featuring new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh in his first major international appearance, alongside Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian markets advanced on Tuesday, supported by strongerthan-expected Chinese business activity data and gains in technology stocks.
China’s CSI 300 rose 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite gained 0.5%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed more than 1%, and South Korea’s KOSPI added 1%. China’s Manufacturing PMI returned to expansion territory at 50.3 in June, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI and Composite PMI rose to 50.2 and 50.6, respectively. The data indicate that exports, particularly from the high-tech sector, remain a key driver of China’s economic growth.
For the second quarter, the Nikkei 225 was on track to gain more than 36%, while the KOSPI surged nearly 65%, fueled by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI).
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose on Wednesday after Iran stated that it would not meet directly with U.S. envoys, increasing uncertainty surrounding the interim ceasefire between the two countries. Brent crude gained 0.69% to USD 73.45 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) rose 0.91% to USD 70.13 per barrel. Although U.S. representatives have arrived in Doha for high-level discussions, Iran and Qatar stated that talks would be conducted through mediators rather than through direct meetings with Iranian officials.
• INDONESIA : The JCI extended its decline on Tuesday, falling 3.05% to 5,643.19. Market sentiment remains cautious, with investors continuing to adopt a wait-andsee approach amid concerns over Indonesia’s current economic conditions.
From a technical perspective, the outlook remains unchanged. If the JCI fails to reclaim the 6,000 level, further downside toward the 5,300–5,400 support area remains possible. Conversely, a breakout above 6,000 could open the door for a rebound toward 6,100 and subsequently 6,240.H
Download full report HERE.
