XA Update Report | Amman Mineral Internasional Tbk. (AMMN) – New Smelters Unlocking Value
By Axell Ebenhaezer
04-August-2026
AMMN reported a decisive step-change in 1Q26, with net sales of US$808mn, EBITDA of US$508mn (63% margin) and net income of US$163mn, reversing a US$138mn loss in 1Q25. Critically, this was achieved with the smelter and Precious Metal Refinery (“PMR”) running at only ~50% and ~46% of design capacity respectively, and with the mine still transitioning into fresh ore at Phase 8. We view 1Q26 as the floor, not the run-rate. With the smelter ramp-up formally completed in April 2026, full absorption of mine concentrate achieved from June 2026, and the expanded concentrator taking first ore in July 2026, we expect FY26E revenue to more than double to US$3,862mn and net profit to grow 253.0% YoY to US$879mn.
🔹The Inflection Quarter, Delivered at Half Capacity
• 1Q26 was the first quarter in which the full mining-to-refining chain contributed simultaneously. The revenue mix shows 58% of 1Q26 revenue coming from refined metal rather than concentrate, underlining the down streaming shift.
• Copper cathode output of 27,670 tons represented only ~50% of design run-rate while refined gold of 66,209 oz only ~46%, creating a clear path to future earnings growth.
• Batu Hijau Phase 8 also crossed from stripping to ore mining, with mined volume rising to 38 MT from 1 MT. Processed copper grade improved to 0.53% from 0.31%, & gold grade to 0.54 g/t from 0.17 g/t. Concentrate production rose 110% YoY to 167,792 dmt, containing 101 Mlbs of copper (+173%) & 136,115 oz of gold (+321%).
• FY26 mining guidance is unchanged at 900,000 dmt of concentrate containing 485 Mlbs (220,000 t) of copper and 579,000 oz of gold. Of that, ~500,000 dmt is expected from the existing mill and ~400,000 dmt from the new mill, which took first ore in July 2026 as part of the concentrator expansion from 40 Mtpa toward 85–90 Mtpa.
• At a parliamentary hearing in July, AMMN also stated a production target of 162,662 tons of copper cathodes in 2026, doubling last year’s production.
🔹Elang: A Super-Giant Waiting to Awaken
• The 2025 Feasibility Study for Elang has been completed. JORC reserves as of 31 December 2024 stand at 2,526 Mt at 0.32% Cu and 0.33 g/t Au, containing 17.78 Blb of copper and 26.44 Moz of gold, with a further 1,294 Mt of resources (exclusive of reserves) at 0.26% Cu and 0.21 g/t Au.
• Crucially, Elang is designed to reuse Batu Hijau’s infrastructure — the processing plants, power facilities, Benete port and jetties, the smelter and PMR — with ore moved via a 54 km overland conveyor. That materially reduces the capital intensity of what would otherwise be a greenfield mega-project.
• Current mine planning envisages Phase 8 at Batu Hijau running to around 2030 with stockpiles to 2033, and Elang extending group mine life to approximately 2046. Optimization work is ongoing, including relocation of the primary crushing station, redesign of sediment ponds and the primary access road, and waste dump optimization to reduce both construction and mining cost.
🔹BUY recommendation with a TP of IDR 5,600
•We initiate coverage on AMMN with a Buy rating and a target price of IDR 5,600. Using a Discounted Cash Flow framework applied to our FY26F–FY28F explicit forecast period, we derive a total value to the firm of US$23,175mn (IDR 405.6tn), equivalent to a fair value of IDR 5,601. This implies +30.8% upside.
• We identify the completion of the smelter ramp-up, commissioning of the expanded concentrator (40 to 85-90 Mtpa), shift in revenue mix, and Indonesia’s structurally deepening domestic market for copper cathode & refined gold as key drivers.
• Risks: 1) Copper & gold price volatility 2) Smelter reliability 3) Royalty increases
Download full report HERE.
NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id
