Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday, supported by gains in consumer discretionary shares led by Amazon and a rebound in semiconductor stocks, which offset Apple’s postearnings decline, weakness in the materials sector, and higher U.S. Treasury yields. Nevertheless, U.S. equities posted a negative monthly performance as the AI sector corrected and oil prices rebounded amid escalating Middle East tensions.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,489.67, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.0% to 25,373.85, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.5% to 52,485.74
The AI sector, which had fueled Wall Street’s rally earlier this year, underwent a sharp correction throughout July amid concerns over elevated valuations, slow returns on AI-related spending, and intensifying competition from China. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 20.6% in July, marking its worst monthly decline since October 2008.
Sentiment was further pressured after reports that hedge fund Situational Awareness had liquidated its entire AI-focused equity portfolio following heavy losses. Investors also remained concerned that massive AI investments by technology companies have yet to generate sufficient returns.
Following their earnings releases, Apple shares fell more than 7% after the company projected September-quarter sales growth of 9%–11%, below market expectations of around 12%. In contrast, Amazon shares surged more than 15% on the back of strong cloud business performance.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields rose after comments from several Fed officials supporting further interest rate hikes. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.712%, while the 2-year yield rose to 4.268%, reflecting persistent market concerns over inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed mixed on Friday after the technology sector rally lost momentum, although regional indexes remained on track for a fourth consecutive monthly gain.
The STOXX 600 fell 0.1%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.3%, Italy’s FTSE MIB added 0.1%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.2%.
Investors also digested Eurozone inflation data, which showed headline inflation rose to 2.9% YoY in July from 2.8% in June, driven by higher energy prices. Core inflation increased to 2.5%, while services inflation remained elevated at 3.3%, reinforcing expectations that the ECB will maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance.
• ASIAN MARKET: Most Asian stock markets advanced on Friday, led by strong gains in South Korea’s KOSPI and Japan’s Nikkei, as investors digested the BOJ’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged at 1.0% and assessed regional economic data.
The BOJ maintained its policy rate in an 8-1 vote, while warning that inflation risks remain tilted to the upside due to higher oil prices, Middle East tensions, yen movements, and global AI demand.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed nearly 4%, supported by semiconductor stocks after industrial production rose 1.3% MoM, while retail sales increased only 0.5% YoY, below expectations.
South Korea’s KOSPI surged 18% after three consecutive sessions of steep losses, driven by rebounds in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix following strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon, which revived optimism over AI-related spending. Despite Friday’s rally, the index still posted a monthly decline of around 22%.
In China, the Shanghai Composite gained 1%, the CSI 300 advanced 1.3%, while the Hang Seng slipped 0.2%. Data showed China’s manufacturing activity contracted again in July, while the non-manufacturing PMI also weakened, highlighting continued economic headwinds.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose on Friday after Iran attacked two oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz and declared the waterway closed, heightening concerns over global supply disruptions.
Brent crude rose 1.2% to USD87.88 per barrel, while WTI gained 1.2% to USD84.59 per barrel. Both benchmarks were also on track for gains of more than 20% in July after falling nearly 20% in June.
The rally was driven by the collapse of the interim peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, triggering renewed military exchanges and raising threats to the strategic Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, increasing the risk of global oil supply disruptions.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed 0.80% higher at 6,236.13 on Friday. Market sentiment continued to improve as selling pressure eased. The decline in oil prices also provided a positive catalyst, helping ease concerns over inflationary pressure and rising energy costs. On the fundamental side, the earnings season remains underway, with several companies beginning to report improved performance, including TLKM, which posted a recovery in net profit.
Overall, investors are beginning to see a more constructive outlook as many previously negative factors have largely been priced in. However, the market still requires additional catalysts to sustain the current momentum, including further clarity regarding the appointment of the next Bank Indonesia Governor.
For today’s trading session, technically, the JCI has moved back above the 6,200 level, opening the possibility for a continued rally toward 6,400. The 6,000–6,200–6,400 range remains the key area to watch, with sustained trading above 6,200 serving as a positive signal for further upside momentum.
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