Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street kicked off the first full trading week of July on Monday with a positive performance, driven by a rebound in semiconductor stocks after two consecutive weeks of declines. Investors returned to the market following the long U.S. Independence Day holiday weekend. The market also remained supported by last week’s gains, which marked its best quarter in six years. Investors are now focused on the release of the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes and the start of the earnings season.
The S&P 500 rose 0.7% to 7,536.54, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.1% to 26,121.16, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.3% to a new record close of 53,056.74, marking its first-ever close above the 53,000 level.
Easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and lower oil prices shifted market attention back to the artificial intelligence (AI) sector. Semiconductor stocks, which had previously come under pressure due to profit-taking and concerns over elevated AI valuations, rebounded, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) rising 2.2%. Memory-related stocks including Western Digital, Sandisk, Micron, SK Hynix, and Samsung Electronics also advanced. Previously, investors had rotated funds out of the technology sector.
Market sentiment was also supported by U.S. labor market data, which slightly reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Weaker-than-expected June nonfarm payroll growth, accompanied by a slight decline in the unemployment rate, suggested that the labor market remained solid but not overly strong, giving the Fed room to keep interest rates on hold. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated that the central bank would no longer provide forward guidance and would instead focus on combating inflation. Investors are now awaiting the release of the June FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.
On the corporate front, Dell Technologies shares surged more than 4% after President Donald Trump encouraged Americans to buy Dell computers. Meanwhile, Strategy ended flat after reporting a USD 8.32 billion digital asset loss in the second quarter and selling Bitcoin to fund preferred stock dividends.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets closed mixed on Monday as investors paused following last week’s strong rally while shifting their attention to a series of central bank comments and key economic data scheduled for release this week. The STOXX 600 Index slipped 0.4%. The previous rally was driven by broad sector rotation after signs of easing inflation and a softer U.S. labor market boosted optimism that global interest rate pressures could ease. Germany’s DAX rose 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 and the UK’s FTSE 100 each fell 0.3%.
On the macroeconomic front, investors will closely watch the Eurozone’s May retail sales and producer price index (PPI), along with Germany’s industrial production data. These releases will provide a clearer picture of whether the region’s manufacturing sector is beginning to recover and whether consumer demand is stabilizing.
• ASIAN MARKET : Technology-heavy stock markets in Japan and South Korea fell sharply on Monday as investors locked in gains in semiconductor stocks following last week’s rally. Meanwhile, lower oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions supported modest gains in several regional markets.
South Korea and Japan once again set the tone for regional sentiment, with investors trimming exposure to semiconductor stocks after Friday’s sharp rebound following the previous week’s AI-driven selloff. Asian technology investors also largely took a breather after the rally, shifting their focus to the upcoming earnings season to assess whether heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure is translating into stronger corporate profits.
South Korea’s KOSPI pared its losses to close down 0.5%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 0.3%. In China, both the CSI 300 and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.6%, reflecting investor caution toward technology stocks despite improving global risk sentiment. Profit-taking returned across much of Asia’s semiconductor sector, although some stocks still posted gains. Samsung Electronicsfell 0.9%, while SK Hynix declined 4.3%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices closed relatively stable on Monday around pre-Iran war levels after Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices, OPEC+ approved another production target increase starting in August, and exports through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover. Brent crude fell 0.2% to USD 71.99 per barrel, while WTI declined 0.2% to USD 68.55 per barrel. Last week, oil prices were also relatively flat after falling back to levels seen before the Iran conflict.
On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump said the United States would either reach a deal with Iran or take further action. Although indirect U.S.-Iran talks last week showed little meaningful progress, the 60-day ceasefire remains in place. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates increased its crude oil production to more than 3.8 million barrels per day in June after leaving OPEC.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed 0.69% higher at 5,916.07 on Monday. Current market conditions continue to indicate the potential for a sustained rebound, with the possibility of forming a cup and handle pattern despite relatively light trading volume.
From a technical perspective, the key foundation remains unchanged. If the JCI fails to break back above the 6,000 level, it could face another correction toward the 5,300– 5,400 support area. If it breaks above 6,000, the next upside targets are 6,100 and 6,240
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