Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Monday after oil prices surged as the U.S. and Iran exchanged military strikes for the first time since July. A sell-off in U.S. bonds, particularly longer-term maturities, also weighed on sentiment as expectations for a Fed rate hike in September increased following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,685.42, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.1% to 26,370.89, and the Dow Jones declined 0.7% to 53,186.32.
Nevertheless, U.S. stocks gained throughout August, ending a two-month losing streak. The S&P 500 rose 2.6% MoM, the Nasdaq 3.9%, and the Dow 1.3%, supported by a solid earnings season and stabilization in AI stocks.
Warsh’s hawkish remarks pushed the probability of a 25-bps rate hike in September to nearly 64%, from 57% a day earlier. The 10-year Treasury yield also rose 3.5 bps to 4.757%, its highest level since mid-January 2025. Investors are now awaiting U.S. labor market data, including job openings, the ADP employment report, and August nonfarm payrolls on Friday.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities declined on Monday, with the STOXX 600 falling 0.6% amid escalating tensions in the Middle East that pushed oil prices above US$90 per barrel, as well as rising expectations for higher interest rates. Germany’s DAX fell 1.1% and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.8%, while London markets were closed for a bank holiday.
Despite the late-month pullback, the STOXX 600 still gained 0.3% in August marking its fifth consecutive monthly advance. However, France’s CAC 40 is poised for its first monthly decline in five months, dragged down by sell-offs in consumer goods and luxury stocks following disappointing performances in China and the U.S.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian equities were mixed on Monday after paring sharp early losses. Sentiment was pressured by Warsh’s hawkish remarks, which increased expectations for higher U.S. interest rates, while escalating U.S. – Iran tensions pushed oil prices higher and heightened inflation concerns.
South Korea’s KOSPI closed 0.5% higher after falling nearly 3% earlier in the session. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.3%, while TOPIX rose 0.2%. The Shanghai Composite gained 0.7%, the CSI 300 rose 0.2%, while the Hang Seng fell 0.2%.
China’s economic data showed that the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July, although it remained below the 50 level separating expansion from contraction. In Japan, July industrial production rose 0.1% MoM, versus expectations for a 0.7% decline, while retail sales increased 2.4% MoM.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices surged on Monday, recording their biggest daily gain since late July after the U.S. and Iran exchanged military strikes for the first time in more than a month, escalating geopolitical tensions. Brent rose 5% to US$91.17 per barrel, while WTI gained 3.5% to US$86.31 per barrel. Investors also monitored supply developments after President Donald Trump announced a U.S. – Venezuela oil deal, which he described as the largest oil deal in history.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed slightly higher at 6,525.48 on Monday, with the market still moving within a ranging and predominantly sideways phase.
The IHSG has begun attempting a breakout and held solidly above the 6,500 level, but momentum has so far been insufficient to push the index toward the 6,570–6,600 area. Investors still need to see whether 6,500 can be maintained as a new base before further gains are confirmed.
For today, a correction remains possible if the breakout momentum fails again. The 6,490 area is the nearest support to watch, while 6,410 is the next support level. As long as both levels hold, the market structure remains relatively constructive.
Also monitor sector rotation and flows to see whether there are new catalysts capable of pushing the IHSG out of its sideways phase.
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