Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed mixed on Monday. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,475.17, the NASDAQ dropped 1.3% to 26,166.60, while the Dow Jones edged up 0.3% to 51,712.53. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in Alphabet shares, which weighed on the communication services sector, while investors also monitored developments in the Middle East conflict.
Geopolitical sentiment briefly improved after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to halt military operations, reopen the Strait of Hormuz for 60 days, and begin negotiations toward a final peace deal. However, optimism faded after renewed clashes between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran and Israel accused each other of violating the ceasefire, prompting Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz again. Tensions escalated further after President Donald Trump threatened renewed strikes on Iran if its support for Hezbollah continued.
Tensions eased slightly after US and Iranian representatives held peace talks in Switzerland, mediated by Qatar and Pakistan. US Vice President JD Vance said a key outcome was a mechanism to keep the Strait of Hormuz open.
On the corporate side, Alphabet fell 5% after two AI executives resigned within days. Meanwhile, SpaceX dropped 16.4%, extending losses for a third straight session after a strong post-debut rally.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks mostly closed higher on Monday as investors weighed US–Iran peace talks against political uncertainty in the UK following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation.
The STOXX 600 rose 0.6%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.7%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 also climbed 0.7%. France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.3%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB edged down 0.1%.
Markets also awaited speeches from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane for clues on monetary policy direction. Investors are watching how the ECB balances persistent inflation pressures following earlier rate hikes, amid easing geopoliticaltensions in the Middle East.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian markets closed higher on Monday, led by Japan and South Korea, as investors cheered progress in US–Iran negotiations despite a stronger US dollar and expectations that US interest rates will remain elevated for longer.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged 2.3% to 72,900, while the TOPIX gained 1.3%, with both indexes near record highs. Gains were driven by technology and semiconductor stocks after reports that Tokyo is targeting a 10 trillion yen investment in artificial intelligence by 2040. A weaker yen also supported sentiment.
In South Korea, the KOSPI rose 1.4%, staying near record levels on strong demand for AI-related tech stocks. SK Hynix surged nearly 6%, briefly overtaking Samsung Electronics as South Korea’s most valuable company.
Chinese markets also advanced, with the CSI 300 up 0.7% and the Shanghai Composite rising 0.2%, supported by expectations of further policy support from Beijing and upcoming economic data.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices edged higher in Asian trading on Tuesday, recovering part of the previous session’s nearly 3% drop as investors assessed progress in US–Iran peace talks and temporary easing of Iranian oil export sanctions.
As of 20:23 ET, Brent crude rose 0.3% to USD 78.10 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.4% to USD 74.18 per barrel. The rebound followed a sharp selloff driven by expectations of reduced supply risk from the Middle East. Sentiment improved after the US issued a 60-day general license allowing the sale, shipment, and import of Iranian crude and petroleum products as part of ongoing negotiations with Tehran.
The measure also covers banking, insurance, and shipping services, raising expectations of higher Iranian exports in the coming weeks and potentially boosting global supply as concerns over disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz ease.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed in negative territory on Monday, falling 0.98% to 6,116.69. The decline came on relatively low trading volume as the market awaited clarity on Indonesia’s classification status in MSCI.
Traders are advised to continue using trailing stops for selected stocks. If IHSG breaks above 6,250, near-term upside targets are 6,375–6,400 before testing 6,640, with a medium-term target of 6,900–7,000. If it fails to break key levels, there is a risk of retesting the psychological 6,000 level.
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