XA Initiation Report | PT Fore Kopi Indonesia Tbk. (FORE) – A Premium-Affordable Moat, with a Sweet Second Course

 

 

By Steven Willie (Research Analyst)

22-July-2026

 

 

We initiate coverage on FORE with a BUY rating and a Target Price of IDR740 per share (+17.5% upside). FORE, Indonesia’s leading homegrown coffee chain, is scaling behind a premium-affordable moat that lets it capture a still-underpenetrated coffee market. A second brand, Fore Donut, is emerging as an increasingly meaningful contributor as it scales into new high-traffic formats, while margins are already showing signs of operating leverage even amid an aggressive store rollout

 

 

 

🔹 6M26 Financial Performance

 

• Double shot of growth. FORE delivered a robust 6M26 performance, with net sales climbing to IDR1.0 trillion (+51.7% YoY). Growth was driven by an aggressive store rollout combined with resilient SSSG of 9.4% YoY, evidence that new outlets are ramping up productively rather than simply cannibalizing existing traffic.

 

 

• Scaling up the network. FORE’s active store network expanded to 377 outlets by end-June 2026 (+44.4% YoY), up from 349 outlets as of end-March 2026, an addition of 28 net new outlets in a single quarter, comprising 363 Fore Coffee, 10 Fore Donut outlets, and 4 Fore Coffee Singapore stores.

 

 

• Margins percolating higher. GPM held broadly steady at 61.9% (vs. 61.8% in 6M25), while OPM expanded to 8.2% (vs. 6.9% in 6M25) as fixed costs spread across a larger revenue base. EBITDA margin improved to 21.4% (vs. 19.6% in 6M25). NPM eased to 5.6% from 6.3%, translating to a 34.3% YoY rise in net profit to IDR56.5 billion.

 

 

 

🔹 Baking Up The Growth Story

 

• Coffee as a lifestyle habit, yet still underpenetrated. Indonesia’s per capita coffee consumption of just around 1kg per year lags Japan’s 4kg and Europe’s 8kg or more, even trailing Southeast Asia’s regional average of 1.5kg (Exhibit 5). We see this gap as a strong long-term growth case; one we expect to steadily close as consumers shift toward specialty coffee and grow more willing to pay a premium price. At current growth rates of around 5% a year, Indonesia is already one of Asia’s fastest-rising coffee consuming markets, with IndexBox projecting domestic coffee volume reaching 6.5 to 8.5 million 60kg bags by 2035F, a 50 to 70% increase from 2026 levels (Exhibit 7). This translates into a long growth runway for FORE that extends well beyond its current network, with room to keep adding stores without running into a structurally mature or saturated market.

 

 

• Expanding on a premium-affordable moat. Management plans to add over 100 net new outlets in FY26 (70 Fore Coffee, 30 Fore Donut), pushing the network beyond 420 outlets by year end and toward a medium-term target of 600 or more by 2028 (Exhibit 24). This expansion is paired with a resilient double-digit SSSG, indicating that FORE’s growth is supported by genuine same-store demand rather than purely capex-driven store-count inflation. Underpinning this is FORE’s premium-affordable moat: specialty-grade coffee at a price point far more accessible than international chains, while letting FORE stay out of the price wars crowding the lower tier.

 

 

• A sweet second course with a bigger bite. Beyond its core coffee business, Fore Donut, FORE’s new business, is only 10 outlets deep as of 2Q26 but already generates 2 to 3 times the daily sales of a typical Fore Coffee outlet. Management is actively preparing to bring Fore Donut into new high-traffic formats such as Soekarno-Hatta Airport, Bandung, and Surabaya, further reducing FORE’s dependence on the core coffee format alone. We expect that Fore Donut together with Fore Coffee Singapore can reach 25.4% contribution of total sales in FY30F (Exhibit 23).

 

 

 

🔹 BUY Recommendation with Target Price at IDR740/Share

 

• We initiate coverage on FORE with a BUY rating and a Target Price of IDR740/share, implying 17.5% upside from the current price of IDR630. Our TP is derived using a five-year DCF through FY30E. This implies 37.7x FY26E P/E and 12.7x FY26E EV/EBITDA, below peers’ (Starbucks, Dutch Bros, Luckin Coffee) average forward P/E of 43.5x and peers’ average EV/EBITDA of 18.2x. FORE’s PEG ratio of 0.59x sits well below peers’ average PEG of 1.41x, indicating that on a growth-adjusted basis, FORE remains attractively valued.

 

 

• Key Risk(s): (i) intensifying competition, (ii) input cost pressure from coffee bean and packaging prices, (iii) softer consumer purchasing power weighing on discretionary spend, (iv) execution risk on the pace of store expansion and new-store ramp-up.

 

 

 

 

Download full report HERE.

 

 

 

 

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id