Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street pared some of its losses toward the close on Wednesday, ending the session mixed. Market sentiment was initially weighed down by rising geopolitical risk premiums following the latest exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, as well as President Donald Trump’s strong rhetoric toward Tehran. However, sentiment improved after Trump said he did not expect the war with Iran to resume, semiconductor and technology stocks rebounded, and the Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed a divided outlook on monetary policy.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,481.46, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 1.1% to 52,348.09, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.2% to 25,870.65 after previously dropping as much as 1.1%.
The U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace agreement last month that included a ceasefire, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil sales. However, the agreement came under threat following the largest escalation since it was signed. After reports of attacks on three oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. military launched retaliatory strikes on more than 80 targets in Iran. CENTCOM said the attacks targeted air defense systems, command networks, coastal radar sites, anti-ship missile capabilities, and more than 60 IRGC small boats. Iran later retaliated by attacking 85 military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain and shooting down a U.S. drone, according to state media.
At the NATO Summit in Ankara, Türkiye, Trump intensified his rhetoric toward Iran. He said the war with Iran was likely over but stressed that the U.S. was prepared to launch additional strikes if necessary. Trump also said the U.S. could reinstate a naval blockade on Iranian ports and even hinted at the possibility of taking control of Kharg Island, Iran’s key oil export terminal. Nevertheless, market sentiment improved after Trump later said he did not expect the conflict to restart, easing gains in oil prices.
Outside the Middle East, semiconductor stocks recovered, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising more than 2% after plunging nearly 14% over the previous four sessions.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stocks fell sharply on Wednesday after U.S. President Donald Trump declared that the framework agreement underpinning the ceasefire with Iran was officially “over.” The STOXX 600 Index, which had been down just 0.4% at midday, closed 1.6% lower. The collapse of the agreement dashed investors’ hopes for a structured resolution to the conflict, triggering broad-based selling across asset classes. Germany’s DAX fell 2.4%, France’s CAC 40 declined 2.2%, the UK’s FTSE 100 lost 1.7%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB dropped 1.2%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets closed lower on Wednesday as continued selling in semiconductor shares extended this week’s artificial intelligence (AI)-driven valuation correction. The decline left South Korea’s KOSPI on the verge of entering bear market territory despite an early rebound.
The initial recovery in Asian semiconductor stocks quickly faded as investors resumed selling previously high-flying AI-related shares. The KOSPI plunged nearly 5% and remained on track to enter a bear market if it closed more than 20% below its June 19 record high. SK Hynix fell 6.8% and LG Innotek dropped 7.4%, reflecting profit-taking across South Korea’s AI supply chain. Selling also spread to Japanese technology stocks, with Murata down about 1%, TDK falling 1.1%, Sony slipping 0.3%, while the Nikkei 225 and TOPIX declined 1.5% and nearly 1%, respectively.
Meanwhile, Chinese equities traded little changed ahead of Thursday’s June inflation report. The CSI 300 slipped 0.1%, the Shanghai Composite was largely unchanged, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index bucked the regional trend by climbing nearly 3%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices pared some of their gains on Wednesday after surging more than 8%, following President Donald Trump’s statement that he did not expect the war with Iran to resume. Nevertheless, the largest escalation between Washington and Tehran since the signing of their interim peace agreement kept markets on edge and supported crude prices at elevated levels.
Earlier, Trump declared that the ceasefire between the two countries was “over” and said the U.S. would likely launch further strikes against Iran following Tuesday’s retaliatory military action. Iranian state media said Tehran would close the Strait of Hormuz if additional U.S. attacks occurred. As of 3:55 p.m. ET (7:55 p.m. GMT), September Brent crude futures were up 5.9% at USD 78.55 per barrel after briefly surpassing USD 80 for the first time since June 22. Meanwhile, August West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 5.1% to USD 74.05 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 1.89% at 5,873.37 on Wednesday. The market declined due to negative sentiment after another rating agency, S&P Dow, issued an outlook similar to MSCI regarding the potential downgrade of Indonesia’s market status to Frontier Market. For now, the market is expected to remain range-bound, consolidating within the 5,300–5,900 range while awaiting stronger catalysts.
From a technical perspective, the key resistance level remains unchanged. If the JCI fails to recover above 6,000, there is potential for another correction toward the 5,300–5,400 support area. A breakout above 6,000 would open the way for further gains toward 6,100 and 6,240.
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