Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed higher on Tuesday, supported by improved sentiment after remarks from Washington helped ease previously heightened tensions with Iran. Gains in the materials and technology sectors, along with a solid corporate earnings season, also supported the market. The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,259.91, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 1% to 25,326.13—both hitting record highs—while the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.7% to 49,298.34.
The situation in the Middle East escalated rapidly over the weekend through Monday after President Donald Trump announced the “Project Freedom” initiative to reopen disrupted shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. The vital route, which carries about one-fifth of global oil supply, was effectively shut due to the conflict, triggering what is considered the largest supply disruption in history. Iran responded by launching missiles at approaching U.S. destroyers and even claimed to have hit one target. However, U.S. Central Command denied the claim, stating no ships were struck, and noted that two U.S. commercial vessels successfully passed through the strait. Tensions eased slightly following positive remarks from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who emphasized that political crises have no military solution and encouraged continued diplomacy. Nevertheless, Iranian officials continued to criticize U.S. actions, calling them a threat to energy route security.
On the economic front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that U.S. services sector activity continued to expand in April, with the index at 53.6—slightly below expectations of 53.7 and down from 54.0 in March. Notably, the prices paid index remained flat at 70.7, significantly below expectations of a sharp increase due to rising oil prices.
As earnings season continues, AMD is scheduled to report after market close, with investors focusing on its progress in competing with Nvidia in the AI chip sector. Meanwhile, Intel shares surged about 13% after Bloomberg reported that Apple had explored potential collaboration with Intel and Samsung to manufacture its main processors.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks were mixed on Tuesday amid signs that the fragile ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran may be weakening and could potentially lead to renewed conflict. The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 0.7%, Germany’s DAX gained 1.7%, and France’s CAC 40 increased 1.1%—all recovering from early session losses. In contrast, the UK’s FTSE 100 lagged, falling 1.4%. This mixed performance reflects a cautious market environment: some investors are taking advantage of upward momentum, while others remain wary due to unresolved geopolitical risks.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets declined on Tuesday as investor risk appetite was hit by rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Australian markets also fell after the central bank raised interest rates as expected. Markets in Japan, China, and South Korea were closed, resulting in subdued regional trading volumes.
Negative sentiment was also influenced by Wall Street’s decline on Monday after Iran launched strikes in response to U.S. operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.4%, pressured by weakness in local technology stocks, which tracked losses in their U.S. counterparts. Additionally, tech stocks faced profittaking after a strong rally in recent weeks driven by optimism around artificial intelligence developments.
• COMMODITIES: Oil prices extended losses in Asian trading on Wednesday as easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East offset supply concerns. Investors also monitored a sharp decline in U.S. crude inventories.
As of 20:23 ET (00:23 GMT), Brent Oil Futures for July delivery fell 1.2% to USD 108.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 1.4% to USD 100.88 per barrel. Both contracts had already dropped around 4% in the previous session.
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Washington would temporarily pause operations to restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, raising hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran. This followed earlier escalation, where the “Project Freedom” initiative triggered a military response from Iran, including attacks on vessels and regional energy infrastructure.
However, the downside in oil prices was limited by tightening U.S. supply. Data from the American Petroleum Institute showed crude inventories fell by 8.1 million barrels last week—far exceeding expectations. The sharp drawdown signals strong demand and constrained supply, providing some support to prices despite easing geopolitical risk premiums.
• INDONESIA : The JCI managed to hold above the 6,900–6,950 support level, rising 1.22% to close at 7,057.11. The market rebounded in the previous session, driven by gains in Barito Group stocks led by BRPT. If the index breaks above 7,200, further upside remains possible, supported by conglomerate stocks. However, given the still uncertain conditions, a short-term trading (scalping) strategy is preferable.
Investors should remain cautious of potential selling pressure in big banks. While valuations appear attractive, selling pressure remains significant amid Indonesia’s macroeconomic contraction. Meanwhile, although commodities are still facing negative sentiment from potential windfall taxes, continued strength in commodity prices could present buy-on-weakness opportunities.
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