Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street on Friday posted its longest weekly rally in nearly 2.5 years, supported by positive developments in the Middle East conflict as well as earnings reports from NVIDIA and Walmart. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,472.73 points, the NASDAQ gained 0.2% to 26,343.97 points, and the Dow Jones climbed 0.6% to a new record high of 50,579.70 points.
Earlier in the week, U.S. equities came under pressure due to a massive sell-off in the global bond market. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield touched its highest level in more than a year, while the 30-year yield hit its highest level since 2007. The surge in yields was driven by expectations of global rate hikes to contain inflation caused by soaring oil prices due to the Iran war. Minutes from the Fed’s April meeting also showed that a majority of officials support further rate hikes if energy inflation persists. Markets are now fully pricing in a 25 bps Fed rate hike this year.
From the Middle East, Iran’s Foreign Minister met with Pakistan’s Interior Minister to discuss efforts to bridge differences between the U.S. and Iran regarding peace proposals. Pakistan has reportedly been actively acting as a mediator between the two countries. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said negotiations showed “positive signs,” although he remained cautious about the final outcome. A senior Iranian official also said negotiation gaps had started to narrow.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan consumer survey showed U.S. consumer sentiment fell to 44.8 in May from 49.8 in April, marking the lowest level on record.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets rose on Friday amid fluctuating investor optimism regarding negotiations to end the Iran war. The Stoxx 600 index gained 0.7%, Germany’s DAX rose 1.3%, France’s CAC 40 climbed 0.4%, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%.
The Stoxx 600 was also on track for a weekly gain despite pressure from rising U.S. and Eurozone government bond yields. The increase in yields was driven by expectations that central banks such as the Fed and ECB may need to raise interest rates in the coming months to curb inflation stemming from the Iran conflict.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets extended gains on Friday and were on track for weekly advances, driven by a rebound in chipmaker stocks following NVIDIA’s strong earnings report. However, investors remained cautious as U.S.-Iran negotiations had yet to fully reach an agreement. Optimism surrounding AI infrastructure spending once again boosted interest in semiconductor stocks.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged more than 2.5% and approached record highs, with weekly gains nearing 3%. The TOPIX index also rose nearly 1%. SoftBank Group continued its rally on optimism surrounding a potential OpenAI IPO and expectations that Arm Holdings will benefit from booming AI demand.
In China, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI edged up 0.2% and was on track for a weekly gain of around 4.5%. However, Samsung Electronics shares fell about 2% after union workers began voting on a wage agreement that had previously prevented a major 18-day strike.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices plunged sharply in early Asian trading on Monday as hopes grew for a U.S.-Iran peace agreement. Brent crude fell more than 5% to USD98.12 per barrel, its lowest level in nearly three weeks, while WTI dropped 5.2% to USD91.31 per barrel.
U.S. President Donald Trump claimed that a peace memorandum with Iran had been “largely negotiated” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iranian state media denied that a deal was close to finalization. Trump also stressed that the naval blockade on Iran would remain in place until an official agreement was reached.
Despite signs of progress in negotiations, the U.S. and Iran still remain divided on key issues, particularly Iran’s nuclear program and Washington’s demand for Tehran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile.
Oil prices had already been under pressure last week following optimism over peace talks, but shipping flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain far below normal levels, keeping global supply tight.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed up 1.1% at 6,162.05. Although the index remained pressured by selling in conglomerate-related stocks and foreign outflows ahead of the May 2026 MSCI rebalancing—particularly in DSSA, BREN, and TPIA, while AMMN began to show resistance—the market moved quite wildly in commodity-related stocks amid rumors of delaysin DSI implementation.
Amid market pressure, several blue-chip stocks such as TLKM as defensive plays still managed to strengthen amid concerns over Rupiah depreciation against the U.S. dollar.
If selling pressure continues, the IHSG may test the 6,000 area as the final psychological support despite attempts to close the gap around the 6,100 area, although there is still potential for a dead cat bounce (DCB). In the short term, investors may monitor stocks that are still able to hold support levels with solid fundamentals and attractive valuations.
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