Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed mixed on Thursday. Losses in Tesla and semiconductor stocks weighed on the market, although weaker-than-expected June labor market data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. On a weekly basis, the major indexes still posted gains ahead of the Independence Day holiday.
The S&P 500 fell 0.1% to 7,478.66, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.8% to 25,832.67, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.1% to close at a new record high of 52,899.24.
Market attention was focused on the U.S. labor market data. June nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000, well below the consensus estimate of 114,000 and slowing from 129,000 in May. However, the unemployment rate eased to 4.2% from 4.3%, indicating that the labor market remains relatively resilient. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue to prioritize bringing inflation under control.
Meanwhile, semiconductor stocks remained under pressure following their strong rally in the second quarter, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 11% over the past two trading sessions. Elsewhere, OpenAI drew attention after reports that it had proposed granting the U.S. government a 5% equity stake ahead of its planned initial public offering (IPO).
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday after weaker-than-expected U.S. labor market data increased expectations that the Federal Reserve would slow the pace of interest rate hikes this year.
The STOXX 600 rose 1.4%. Germany’s DAX gained 2%, France’s CAC 40 advanced 1.7%, the U.K.’s FTSE 100 climbed 1.7%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB added 1.6%.
Positive sentiment was driven by U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which showed that only 57,000 jobs were added in June, well below expectations of 114,000. The weaker data eased pressure on global borrowing costs and gave the European Central Bank (ECB) greater flexibility in determining its monetary policy path.
Market sentiment was also supported by comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who stated that the risks surrounding Eurozone inflation and economic growth have become more balanced, easing investor concerns following the ECB’s interest rate hike last month.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets declined on Thursday, led by South Korea, as investors sold technology and semiconductor stocks amid concerns over elevated valuations in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 5%, with Samsung Electronics falling 7.5% and SK Hynix dropping 9.2%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 declined 1.6%, while semiconductor-related stocks including Kioxia, Ibiden, Murata, Furukawa Electric, and Mitsui Mining & Smelting posted sharp losses.
In Taiwan, TSMC and other AI supply chain companies also came under pressure as investors reassessed the sector’s lofty valuations following its strong rally this year. In contrast, SoftBank gained 1.5% after reports that it had resumed discussions over a USD 10 billion loan backed by its stake in OpenAI.
Meanwhile, Chinese equities proved relatively more resilient. The Shanghai Composite fell 1.9%, while the CSI 300 slipped 0.9%, despite earlier support from stronger manufacturing data and expectations of additional policy stimulus.
• COMMODITIES : GOLD: Gold prices surged on Thursday after weaker-than-expected U.S. June labor market data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would take a more cautious approach to raising interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a September rate hike fell to around 51%, down from 66% previously. Spot gold rose 2.4% to USD 4,126.75 per ounce, while gold futures gained 1.45% to USD 4,142.42 per ounce.
OIL: Oil prices traded relatively steady ahead of the U.S. Independence Day long weekend after declining for four consecutive weeks and returning to pre-Iran conflict levels.
Brent crude edged slightly higher to USD 71.60 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 0.2% to USD 68.47 per barrel. Market sentiment continued to be supported by improving oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, helping ease concerns over potential global supply disruptions.
• INDONESIA : The JCI continued its gains on Thursday, closing at 5,744.56. The market remains largely in a wait-and-see mode and continues to be fragile amid the current domestic conditions, resulting in heightened volatility.
From a technical perspective, the outlook remains unchanged. If the JCI fails to break back above the 6,000 level, the index still has the potential to decline toward the 5,300–5,400 support area. However, if it successfully breaks above 6,000, the next upside targets are 6,100 and 6,240.
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