Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed sharply lower on Thursday after Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings reports failed to ease investor concerns over massive AI spending and its return prospects. On the other hand, initial U.S. jobless claims fell to their lowest level since May 1969, reflecting a resilient labor market. The S&P 500 Index fell 1.2% to 7,407.58, the Nasdaq Composite declined 2.2% to 25,137.69, and the Dow Jones dropped 1.0% to 51,711.29.
AI sentiment remained under pressure after Alphabet reported negative free cash flow for the first time and raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to USD195–205 billion, while indicating spending would increase further in 2027. Tesla also recorded negative free cash flow for the first time since Q1 2024 and maintained its capex target of more than USD25 billion. Tesla shares plunged 14.5%, while Alphabet fell more than 7%
GEOPOLITICS: Market sentiment was also pressured by a surge in oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing USD100 per barrel for the first time since May amid rising risks of a broader conflict in the Middle East.
The Houthi group claimed responsibility for attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, raising concerns over disruptions to global oil supplies. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was also reportedly down around 75% due to heightened security risks.
The U.S. military continued attacks on Iran for the 12th consecutive night, while Iran retaliated by striking U.S. military bases in several neighboring countries. President Donald Trump warned that the U.S. would hold Iran responsible if the Houthis attacked ships again and threatened further military action against both Iran and the Houthis.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks extended their declines on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) kept its benchmark interest rates unchanged as expected but warned that the inflationary impact from rising energy prices has not fully materialized.
The STOXX 600 Index fell 1.2%, the DAX declined 1.8%, the CAC 40 dropped 1.6%, the FTSE 100 fell 0.7%, and the FTSE MIB plunged 2.8%.
In its statement, the ECB said energy prices remain in line with baseline projections but emphasized that it is closely monitoring the magnitude, duration, and potential secondround effects on inflation. The ECB also reiterated that monetary policy decisions will remain data-dependent on a meeting-by-meeting basis, without providing guidance on the future path of interest rates.
• ASIAN MARKET: Most Asian stock markets closed higher on Thursday, driven by optimism over continued AI spending after Alphabet raised its capital expenditure outlook again. However, market gains were limited by rising oil prices amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
South Korea’s KOSPI led regional gains, rising 4.4%, supported by a surge in SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares as investors expected Alphabet’s higher AI spending to boost demand for memory chips and AI servers. Meanwhile, South Korea’s economy grew 3.7% YoY in Q2 2026, exceeding expectations of 3.5%, supported by strong semiconductor exports.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.4% and the TOPIX gained 0.5%. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index increased 1.1%, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 each advanced 0.2%.
Nevertheless, gains were capped by oil prices reaching a six-week high after the Houthi group claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Rising energy prices renewed concerns over global inflation and the interest rate outlook, limiting investors’ appetite for risk assets.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices surged more than 6% on Thursday, with Brent crude surpassing USD100 per barrel for the first time since May after Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. The incident drew criticism from President Donald Trump and heightened concerns over global oil supply disruptions.
The surge in oil prices following the breakdown of the memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the U.S. and Iran revived inflation concerns. This was reflected in the rise of the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which increased 4.4 basis points to 4.704% as investors sold government bonds.
In U.S. afternoon trading, September Brent futures jumped 7.4% to USD101.08 per barrel, while September WTI futures rose 6.8% to USD92.75 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed Thursday’s trading session down 0.3% at 6,315.31. The JCI briefly tested the 6,400 resistance level during the first session before reversing lower in the second session amid profit-taking. The decline was further exacerbated by renewed concerns as benchmark crude oil prices climbed back toward USD 100 per barrel. Escalating geopolitical tensions remain a key market overhang, potentially driving the JCI to retest its lower support level around 6,000 if risk sentiment continues to deteriorate.
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