Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. markets were closed on Friday. This week, investors will focus on key economic data releases, including May manufacturing and services PMI, a revised Q1 GDP reading, and May PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s main inflation gauge used to assess inflation trends and interest rate policy
On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump threatened to strike Iran if it does not stop supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon. The statement came amid U.S.-Iran negotiations in Switzerland regarding the implementation of a peace agreement. However, Iranian media reported that its delegation left the talks following Trump’s threats, although communication continued through Pakistani and Qatari mediators.
Previously, the U.S. and Iran agreed on a 14-point memorandum of understanding (MoU) to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, the Lebanon issue remains a major obstacle after Israel continued attacks on Hezbollah targets, while Iran accused the U.S. and Israel of violating the agreement. Weekend reports also said Iran again closed the Strait of Hormuz after partially reopening it, raising doubts over the sustainability of the peace process. Although both countries committed to 60 days of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program, tensions in the Middle East remain high.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks ended mixed on Friday amid sentiment weighed down by a fragile Middle East ceasefire, a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook, and rising oil prices. The STOXX 600 fell 0.2%, Germany’s DAX dropped 0.25%, and France’s CAC 40 declined 0.4%, while Italy’s FTSE MIB was the only major index to gain, up 0.5%.
Despite this, European equities still posted a second consecutive weekly gain, supported by a peace deal that reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices lower and eased inflation concerns. However, the STOXX 600’s weekly gain of around 0.6% lagged behind Asia’s more than 1% rally after the Fed unexpectedly turned more hawkish. According to CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in an 80% probability of a rate hike in October.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks closed lower on Friday amid doubts over U.S.– Iran peace negotiations. Technology and semiconductor shares, which had earlier gained, reversed due to profit-taking, while trading volumes were thin due to holidays in China and Hong Kong.
South Korea’s KOSPI briefly hit a record high of 9,385.59 before falling 0.6%, led by chip stocks. Samsung dropped nearly 2%, while SK Hynix still rose 2% but retreated from an intraday record. Japan’s Nikkei 225 also hit a new high before closing up 0.2%, while the TOPIX fell 0.9%
Japan’s May inflation remained subdued and below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target, supported by government energy subsidies. However, the BOJ has already raised rates and signaled further hikes amid rising producer inflation, which may eventually feed into consumer prices.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose on Monday as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz slowed and early U.S.–Iran talks following the interim peace deal got off to a shaky start. Brent rose 0.67% to USD 81.11 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.64% to USD 78.62 per barrel.
Shipping data showed a sharp decline in vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz after Iran again closed the route, citing U.S. and Israeli violations of the peace deal. Despite this, oil prices still fell more than 8% last week as markets anticipated higher supply from Iranian exports and Gulf producers. Iran said over 25 million barrels of oil had passed through a “virtual blockade” since early last week, while the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq also increased supply, with Iraq targeting production of 4.2–4.3 million barrels per day.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed slightly in the green on Friday at 6,177.13, where selling pressure from FTSE rebalancing flows was relatively absorbed by the market.
Use trailing stops to manage selected stocks. If the JCI breaks above 6,250, the next upside targets are 6,375–6,400, with a medium-term target of 6,900– 7,000. If it fails to break through, downside risk may test psychological levels.
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