Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Friday, ending a two-week rally, led by a sell-off in technology stocks as profit-taking in the AI sector continued and rising U.S.-Iran tensions reignited inflation concerns.
The NASDAQ fell 1.4% to 25,520.24, the S&P 500 declined 1.1% to 7,454.74, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.8% to 52,146.39. For the week, the NASDAQ fell 2.9%, the S&P 500 declined 1.6%, and the Dow Jones corrected 0.9%.
The technology sector briefly plunged more than 3% after the launch of a new AI model by Chinese startup Moonshot AI raised concerns over AI competition, coupled with a decline in Netflix shares following weaker-thanexpected performance guidance. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index also officially entered bear market territory after falling more than 20% from its record high.
Meanwhile, preliminary data from the University of Michigan showed U.S. consumer sentiment rose to 54.4 in July, the highest since February, while one-year inflation expectations declined to 4.2% from 4.6% in June. However, rising oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict reignited inflation concerns despite previous June CPI and PPI data showing easing price pressures.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks weakened on Friday as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and revived global inflation concerns. However, a strong start to the earnings season, particularly from the banking sector, helped limit the decline. The STOXX 600 index fell 0.3%, but still recorded a slight 0.1% gain for the week.
Final Eurostat data confirmed that eurozone inflation slowed to 2.8% YoY in June from 3.2% in May. Although the data indicated easing price pressures, positive sentiment from the inflation report was overshadowed by rising geopolitical risks, resulting in a limited market reaction.
• ASIAN MARKET: Most Asian stock markets declined on Friday, led by Japan, as the global technology sell-off continued and investors remained cautious over escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that supported oil prices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged 4%, while the TOPIX fell 2.6%, pressured by declines in semiconductor stocks such as Murata and Kioxia.
Despite TSMC reporting better-than-expected earnings and maintaining strong AI demand prospects, its shares fell 5% after the company raised its capital expenditure outlook, sparking concerns over excessive investment in the AI sector.
In China, the Shanghai Composite declined 1.6%, the CSI 300 fell 2.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng corrected 2%. Meanwhile, South Korean markets were closed for a public holiday after experiencing sharp losses earlier in the week.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices jumped around 3% on Monday, with Brent crude surpassing USD90 per barrel, as the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified and disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent futures rose USD2.69 (+3.05%) to USD90.79 per barrel, the highest level since June 11, while WTI gained USD2.19 (+2.65%) to USD84.68 per barrel, its highest since June 12. Last week, both Brent and WTI surged around 16%, marking their largest weekly gains in several months.
The conflict escalated after the U.S. launched attacks on Iran for the ninth consecutive night, while Kuwait and Bahrain reported Iranian attacks. Both sides have also targeted shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles around 20% of global oil trade.
• INDONESIA : The IHSG closed Friday’s trading session 1.1% higher at 6,175.54. For the first time after significant foreign selling pressure over recent periods, foreign investors returned, recording a net foreign buy of IDR725 billion in the IHSG, led by BBCA. The IHSG’s next resistance level will test the 6,240 area, with the 6,000 level serving as psychological support.
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