Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Thursday, weighed down by technology stocks, particularly the semiconductor sector, after TSMC raised its capital expenditure (capex) guidance. Sentiment was also pressured by comments from a Federal Reserve official supporting slightly higher interest rates. Losses were partially offset by gains in healthcare and consumer staples stocks.
The benchmark S&P 500 fell 0.5% to 7,533.61, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 1.5% to 25,881.95, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.2% to 52,553.62.
TSMC posted a 77% jump in quarterly net profit to T$706.6 billion (USD22 billion), beating expectations and reflecting robust global AI investment. However, investors remained concerned about elevated AI valuations after TSMC raised its 2026 capex guidance to USD60–64 billion and announced an additional USD100 billion investmentin Arizona.
Meanwhile, the healthcare sector gained more than 2%, led by a 1.2% rise in UnitedHealth shares after the company reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings and an improvement in its medical cost ratio.
On the economic front, U.S. retail sales rose 0.2% MoM in June, in line with expectations, although slowing from a 1.0% increase in May due to lower gasoline sales. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell to 208,000, better than the expected 216,000, indicating that U.S. consumer spending and the labor market remained resilient.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets were mixed on Thursday, as investor concerns over escalating military tensions between Washington and Tehran, which kept oil prices at one-month highs, were offset by softer U.S. inflation data.
The pan-European STOXX 600 rose 0.2%. Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC 40 fell 0.5% and 0.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, Italy’s FTSE MIB slipped 0.1%, while London’s FTSE 100 gained 0.5%.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian stock markets fell on Thursday, led by South Korea, amid a selloff in semiconductor stocks and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions that reignited concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged more than 6%, briefly triggering a trading halt, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics falling 8%–11%. The Bank of Korea also raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 bpsto 2.75%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 2.7% and the TOPIX declined 1.1%. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 each slipped 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gained 1.7%.
• COMMODITIES :Oil prices were little changed on Thursday after surging more than 11% this week. Markets continued to monitor ongoing U.S. attacks on Iran for a fifth consecutive night, as well as disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude edged down 0.1% to USD84.90 per barrel, while WTI slipped 0.2% to USD79.44 per barrel. Despite the pullback, both benchmarks remained at their highest levels in more than one month.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed at 6,108.28 on Thursday. From a technical perspective, our view remains unchanged. The 6,000 level continues to serve as the key confirmation level for restoring bullish momentum. As long as the JCI fails to hold above this level, the index is expected to remain range-bound, with the potential to retest the 5,300–5,400 support area if selling pressure intensifies. On the other hand, if the JCI successfully breaks and holds above 6,000, the opportunity for further gains toward 6,100–6,240 will reopen.
Although the JCI has begun to stabilize above the 6,000 level and today marks the final trading session of the week, we continue to recommend a wait-and-see approach given that selling pressure remains present.
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