Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday as investors digested U.S. inflation data, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s testimony before Congress, developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, and the start of the earnings season for major companies.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,544.63, the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.9% to 26,107.01, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended little changed at 52,508.66.
June inflation data showed softer-than-expected price pressures. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-on-month, the largest decline since April 2020, while core CPI was unchanged. On an annual basis, headline CPI rose 3.5% and core CPI increased 2.6%, both below market expectations. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in gasoline and energy prices following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in June, although inflation risks have resurfaced amid the latest escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh described the June inflation data as a positive development but maintained a hawkish stance. He also reiterated that the Federal Reserve would no longer provide forward guidance on the direction of interest rate policy.
In the Middle East, President Donald Trump announced that the U.S. would reinstate a full blockade on Iranian ports and instead pursue trade and investment partnerships with Gulf countries, replacing the earlier proposal to charge protection fees for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The second-quarter earnings season kicked off with strong results from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs, supported by robust trading and investment banking activity, including fees from the SpaceX IPO. Meanwhile, IBM shares plunged more than 25% after its quarterly revenue outlook came in below expectations due to a shift in corporate IT spending toward hardware infrastructure.
• EUROPEAN MARKET :European stocks trimmed earlier losses on Tuesday and mostly closed higher after softer-than-expected U.S. consumer inflation boosted global market sentiment, helping offset concerns over the escalating military conflict in the Middle East. The STOXX 600 Index, which had fallen as much as 0.6% in early trading following reports of direct missile exchanges between the U.S. and Iran, rebounded to close 0.2% higher.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks extended losses on Tuesday as escalating U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil prices to near one-month highs, reviving inflation concerns and clouding the outlook for global interest rates. Investors also awaited the release of U.S. inflation data.
In South Korea, the KOSPI fell 2.5%, extending the previous session’s losses as semiconductor stocks remained volatile following the sharp decline in U.S.-listed SK Hynix shares. Japan’s Nikkei 225 slipped 1%, while the broader TOPIX was little changed.
In China, the Shanghai Composite was largely flat, the CSI 300 gained 0.5%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also traded mostly unchanged. Meanwhile, data showed China’s exports and imports grew much faster than expected in June, supported by strong global demand for AI and technology-related products.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices climbed about 2% to a one-month high on Tuesday after the U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iran, potentially reducing oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Before the Iran conflict, around 20% of global oil supply passed through the strait. However, gains were capped by concerns that higher energy prices could fuel inflation, slow global economic growth, and ultimately weigh on oil demand.
Brent crude rose USD 1.43, or 1.7%, to USD 84.73 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gained USD 1.20, or 1.5%, to USD 79.34 per barrel. For the second consecutive session, Brent closed at its highest level since June 12 and WTI since June 15. The rally also pushed Brent into technically overbought territory for a second straight day for the first time since March.
U.S. President Donald Trump scrapped the proposal to impose a 20% protection fee on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and said the U.S. would instead focus on pursuing investment partnerships with Gulf countries.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed Tuesday’s trading by retesting the 6,000 support level, finishing at 6,039.52.
From a technical perspective, our view remains unchanged. The 6,000 level continues to serve as the key confirmation point for a return of bullish momentum. As long as the JCI is able to hold above this level, the outlook remains constructive. However, if the index falls back below 6,000, it is expected to move sideways with the potential to retest the 5,300– 5,400 support area should selling pressure intensify. Conversely, a sustained move above 6,000 would keep the path open for further gains toward 6,100 and 6,240.
For today, investors should closely monitor the 6,000 level to see whether the JCI can maintain its position above it.
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