Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed higher on Tuesday, with the benchmark S&P 500 moving closer to its record closing level. Sentiment was driven by hopes for continued Middle East ceasefire talks, gains in growth stocks, and a much better-than-expected U.S. producer inflation report.
The S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 6,966.51 (about 12 points below its record). The NASDAQ jumped 2% to 23,639.08, while the Dow Jones increased 0.7% to 48,535.81.
President Donald Trump said Iran wants to “make a deal” and emphasized that Iran will not have nuclear weapons. Further talks could take place within the next two days in Pakistan. Despite ongoing U.S.–Iran tensions, both sides are reportedly showing progress toward a permanent ceasefire. The U.S. has asked Iran not to enrich uranium for 20 years, while Pakistan is acting as mediator and offering a second round of negotiations.
On the data side, U.S. March PPI rose 0.5% month-on-month and 4.0% year-onyear—below expectations. Core PPI increased 0.1% monthly and 3.8% annually. The largest annual increase since February 2023 was driven by an 8.5% surge in energy prices. The impact of the Iran war was mainly seen in headline figures, not core.
The International Monetary Fund projects global growth to slow to 3.1% this year and 3.2% in 2027.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks advanced on Tuesday, while oil prices fell below USD 100 per barrel as signs of progress in U.S.–Iran negotiations emerged.
The Stoxx 600 rose 1%, Germany’s DAX gained 1.2%, France’s CAC 40 climbed 1.1%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 added 0.2%. The gains followed positive sentiment from Asia, where MSCI’s ex-Japan index and Japan’s Nikkei also advanced.
On the corporate side, LVMH (parent of Dior) said the Middle East conflict cut at least 1% from total sales, weighing on hopes of a luxury sector recovery. Meanwhile, Kering is set to release earnings after the European market close.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets rose on Tuesday, driven by strong gains in tech and chip stocks, although investors also assessed weaker-than-expected China trade data.
South Korea’s KOSPI surged 3.4% to a six-week high, with SK Hynix jumping nearly 9% to a record high and Samsung Electronics gaining more than 4%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 2.5%, TOPIX also strengthened, and SoftBank Group surged over 10%.
However, sentiment was capped by China data: March exports rose only 2.5% (below 8.3% expectations and sharply down from 21.8% prior). Imports jumped 27.8%, indicating strong domestic demand. The trade surplus narrowed to about USD 51 billion, well below expectations.
The Shanghai Composite rose 0.8%, CSI 300 gained 0.6%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng edged up 0.4%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices fell on Tuesday amid hopes Iran will resume negotiations with the U.S. and Israel to end the conflict that has shut the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route.
Brent settled at USD 94.79 per barrel (down USD 4.57 or 4.6%), while WTI closed at USD 91.20 (down USD 7.80 or 7.87%). Both had risen previously after the U.S. military blockaded Iranian ports.
The International Energy Agency said this disruption is the largest in history, with 10.1 million barrels per day lost in March.
The U.S. expanded the blockade to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Shipping data showed some vessels turning back, although several Iran-linked tankers were allowed through as their destinations were not Iranian ports. Iran has threatened retaliation against ports in Gulf countries.
Meanwhile, U.S.–Iran negotiations may resume this week in Islamabad, with both sides still working toward an agreement.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher again, gaining 2.34% to 7,675.95, successfully breaking the next resistance level around 7,200–7,300. The Indonesian market is becoming more resilient to U.S.–Iran geopolitical sentiment, while ongoing JCI reforms, with the release of the High Concentration List (HCL), it is providing positive momentum. The next key focus is the MSCI inclusion and rebalancing in May 2026, particularly regarding Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), which are included in the HCL. Market flows remain concentrated in conglomerate stocks, with sector rotation within these groups offering trading opportunities. For today’s session, the JCI is expected to continue its upward trend, with flows still favoring conglomerates—making rotation among them a key trading opportunity.
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