XA Update Report | PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk. (BBNI) – 3Q26: Solid Wholesale Loan Expansion – Improving Asset Quality Supports Profitability Amid Persistent NIM Pressure

By Leonardo Lijuwardi

28 October 2026

 

BBNI maintained positive earnings growth in 9M26, with net profit increasing by 6.6% YoY to IDR 16.12T. On a quarterly basis, 3Q26 net profit reached IDR 5.36T (+6.7% YoY; +5.2% QoQ). Earnings performance was supported by solid loan expansion, resilient non-interest income growth, and continued improvement in asset quality. Net Interest Income (NII) grew 13.6% YoY to IDR 33.24T (Quarterly Basis: 3Q26: IDR 10.95T | +12.5% YoY; -2.7% QoQ), while Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) increased 11.6% YoY to IDR 27.53T. Nevertheless, industry-wide margin pressure remained evident, with BBNI’s Net Interest Margin (NIM) contracting to 3.5% in 9M26 from 3.8% in 9M25, reflecting elevated funding costs and pressure on loan yields. Meanwhile, non-interest income increased 12.8% QoQ to IDR 6.74T, while provisioning charges declined 36.8% QoQ to IDR 1.87T (2Q26: IDR 2.96T; 3Q25: IDR 2.33T), helping sustain sequential earnings growth. On a quarterly basis, NIM narrowed to 3.3% in 3Q26 from 3.6% in 2Q26, while 9M26 NIM declined 30 bps YoY to 3.5%, broadly consistent with the prevailing industry trend. On a more encouraging note, asset quality continued to improve, with the Loan at Risk (LAR) ratio declining to 7.8% from 10.4% in 9M25, strengthening BBNI’s underlying fundamentals amid persistent industry-wide NIM compression.

 

🔹 Lending Side: Loan Growth Remains Robust – Enterprise Banking Emerges as a Key Wholesale Growth Engine

• BBNI sustained robust loan growth through 9M26. Total consolidated loans expanded 22.2% YoY and 2.5% QoQ to IDR 992.5T, primarily driven by business banking expansion, particularly the wholesale segment, which grew 30.3% YoY and 2.7% QoQ to IDR 673.8T. Overall, business banking loans increased 25.7% YoY to IDR 810.3T, accounting for approximately 81.6% of total consolidated loans. This performance reinforces wholesale banking’s position as the primary driver of BBNI’s loan expansion, supported by sustained corporate financing activity.
• Enterprise banking emerged as the fastest-growing segment within BBNI’s wholesale portfolio. Enterprise loans surged 105.6% YoY and 20.4% QoQ to IDR 136.3T, while corporate loans increased 19.3% YoY to IDR 537.5T, despite a marginal 0.9% QoQ contraction. Meanwhile, consumer loans maintained moderate growth of 9.0% YoY and 1.9% QoQ to IDR 163.8T in 9M26, supported by mortgages (+9.9% YoY; +2.0% QoQ) and personal loans (+8.8% YoY; +1.8% QoQ).
• Loan yields showed early signs of sequential recovery, although cumulative yields remained under pressure. Blended loan yield improved to 7.1% in 3Q26 from 6.9% in 2Q26, supported by yield recovery across corporate, enterprise, and small business lending. Nevertheless, the 9M26 blended loan yield remained at 6.9%, compared with 7.3% in 9M25. We believe BBNI’s asset repricing strategy is beginning to deliver positive results, although a sustained recovery in loan yields will be necessary to offset the emerging upward pressure on the Cost of Funds (CoF).

 

 

🔹 Funding Side: Third-Party Deposit Growth Remains Solid

• BNI maintained strong momentum in third-party deposit (TPF) growth. Total TPF increased 20.4% YoY and 2.2% QoQ to IDR 1,124.6T in 9M26, supported by CASA growth of 19.6% YoY and 1.9% QoQ to IDR 733.7T. Current accounts remained the primary growth contributor, expanding 25.9% YoY to IDR 433.8T, while savings accounts grew 11.6% YoY to IDR 300.0T.
• Despite strong nominal CASA growth, the funding mix remained under pressure from rising time deposits. Time deposits increased 21.8% YoY and 2.8% QoQ to IDR 390.8T in 9M26, resulting in a slight moderation in the CASA ratio to 65.2%, compared with 65.4% in 2Q26 and 65.6% in 3Q25. Meanwhile, CoF increased to 3.16% in 3Q26 from 2.63% in 2Q26, reflecting higher funding costs amid a rising interest rate environment following Bank Indonesia’s benchmark rate hikes.
🔹 BBNI Asset Quality Strengthening Credit Fundamentals and Sustained Recovery
• Improving asset quality remained one of BBNI’s most notable highlights in 9M26. The Loan at Risk (LAR) ratio declined significantly to 7.8% in 3Q26 from 8.1% in 2Q26 and 10.4% in 3Q25, representing a 260-bps YoY improvement. In absolute terms, outstanding LAR declined to IDR 75.9T from IDR 82.9T in 3Q25, despite total loans expanding 22.2% YoY. Meanwhile, the gross NPL ratio remained stabl e at 1.9% in 9M26. These trends suggest that BBNI’s robust loan expansion has been accompanied by an improving overall credit risk profile. Asset quality improvement was particularly evident in wholesale banking, especially the enterprise segment. Enterprise LAR declined substantially to 7.8% in 3Q26 from 15.2% in 3Q25 and 10.2% in 2Q26, while the enterprise NPL ratio improved to 2.6% from 3.0% in the preceding quarter. Nevertheless, consumer asset quality warrants continued monitoring, as the consumer NPL ratio increased to 3.2% from 2.6% in 3Q25. Overall, improving wholesale credit quality reflects the positive impact of more disciplined underwriting standards and prudent risk management practices.
• Lower NPL formation and easing provisioning requirements provide additional support for profitability. Provisioning charges declined 36.8% QoQ to IDR 1.87T in 3Q26, with the Cost of Credit (CoC) moderating to 0.7% from 1.2% in 2Q26. Meanwhile, LAR coverage improved to 48.3% from 47.4% in 2Q26, although NPL coverage declined to 193.3%. We believe improving asset quality and more manageable provisioning requirements could provide an important earnings buffer, particularly if NIM pressure persists over the coming quarters.
🔹 FY26 Outlook: Revised Loan Growth Guidance and Resilient Asset Quality Support Earnings
• FY26 Outlook: Upward Revision to Loan Growth Guidance, with Improving Asset Quality Supporting Profitability. Management revised its FY26 loan growth guidance upward to 10–13% YoY from the previous 8–10% range, reflecting robust loan growth of 22.2% YoY in 9M26. Meanwhile, NIM and CoC guidance remained unchanged at 3.3–3.5% and 1.0–1.2%, respectively. We expect continued wholesale loan expansion, particularly in enterprise banking, alongside improving asset quality, to remain key drivers of BBNI’s profitability.
• Fundamentals Remain Resilient Despite Persistent Margin Pressure. BBNI’s 9M26 net profit of IDR 16.12T represented 74.6% of NHKSI’s FY26 earnings estimate of IDR 21.62T. Robust loan growth, solid CASA and TPF expansion, and resilient non-interest income should continue to partially mitigate the impact of NIM compression and rising funding costs. Declining LAR, improving NPL formation, and more manageable provisioning requirements provide a healthier foundation for sustainable earnings growth, although potential deterioration in consumer loan quality remains a key risk to monitor.
🔹 “Buy” Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 3,900 / Share (Upside Potential +16.4%)
• NHKSI Research gives BUY recommendation on BBNI with a target price of IDR 3,900/share, implying a valuation of -1 standard deviation (STD) to its three-year historical forward P/BV. Despite heightened market uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s potential MSCI reclassification to Standalone Market status, we believe BBNI’s underlying business fundamentals remain relatively stable, particularly in terms of profitability and asset quality. Robust loan growth, particularly across corporate and middle/enterprise banking, resilient fee-based income, and sustained improvement in asset quality remain key earnings drivers. Potential upside catalysts include continued loan growth momentum, a faster-than-expected recovery in loan yields and NIM, and greater monetization of wholesale banking relationships through stronger fee-based income generation. Meanwhile, key downside risks include domestic macroeconomic and political uncertainty, intensifying competition within the banking industry, and weaker-than-expected loan growth or NIM performance.
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