Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed mostly lower on Friday after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole dampened investor optimism. The S&P 500 fell 0.3% to 7,709.18, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.5% to 26,402.42, while the Dow Jones was nearly flat at 53,559.34. On a weekly basis, the S&P 500 and Dow each rose 0.5%, while the Nasdaq gained 0.9%.
Warsh emphasized that U.S. inflation has not shown meaningful improvement and remains above the Fed’s 2% target. July data showed PCE rising 3.7% YoY and core PCE increasing 3.3% YoY. His remarks pushed expectations for a 25-bps rate hike in September to above 59%, from around 35% the previous day.
On a weekly basis, Wall Street recorded gains for the fourth week out of five, mainly driven by Nvidia’s nearly 9% surge on Thursday after reporting revenue of US$92.22 billion, up 106% YoY, and providing an outlook for US$108 billion in revenue for the current quarter. Nvidia fell 4.6% on Friday, but other Magnificent Seven stocks, including Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon, gained 1.2–4%.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities gained on Friday, with the STOXX 600 rising 0.5% and posting a weekly gain of around 0.2%. French stocks rebounded 1% after previously falling to a one-month low. However, market gains remained limited by concerns over high interest rates, volatile energy prices, and mixed regional economic data. Investors also remained cautious ahead of Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian equities traded in a limited range on Friday, with South Korea’s KOSPI being the worst performer, falling 1.8% amid a selloff in semiconductor stocks. SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics each fell more than 3%. Technology stocks remained under pressure amid concerns over high AI valuations and uncertainty over the direction of U.S. interest rates.
In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 and TOPIX rose 0.3% and 0.8%, respectively, supported by Tokyo inflation data that remained in line with expectations and reinforced expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike. In China, the CSI 300 fell 0.1%, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.1%, and the Hang Seng gained 0.3%.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1% and the TOPIX declined 1.2%. Shares of Sony, Murata Manufacturing, and Renesas Electronics dropped, while Kioxia Holdings and TDK gained.
In China, the CSI 300 fell 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.5%, while the Hang Seng edged up 0.1%, supported by a more than 5% gain in Alibaba after launching its latest AI model and a more than 2% increase in Tencent shares.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices surged more than 2% on Monday after U.S. forces struck two Iranian launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday. Brent rose 2.52% to US$90.32 per barrel, while WTI gained 2.41% to US$85.41 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The IDX Composite closed relatively flat on Friday, edging down 0.06% to 6,518.12. The market remains largely consolidative following the previous rebound, with investors starting to monitor sector rotation to identify where the next flow is heading. Stocks with data center exposure, particularly the pick-and-shovel ecosystem, continue to show relatively strong momentum and remain attractive to monitor.
On the other hand, investors need to monitor flow rotation into conglomerate stocks, particularly whether momentum is starting to shift toward the Bakrie Group and Jhonlin Group. Such flow movements could provide an important indication for determining the next trading theme.
Technically, the 6,400 area remains the main base support, while 6,200 is the next support level. As long as the IDX Composite holds above 6,400, the market structure remains relatively constructive and the opportunity for further gains remains open.
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