Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks plunged on Wednesday, pressured by continued weakness in semiconductor shares and surging oil prices.
The market trimmed losses after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%– 3.75%, although three Fed officials voted for a 25-basis-point rate hike due to inflation concerns driven by oil price volatility and the Middle East conflict.
The S&P 500 fell 1.5% to 7,321.63, the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.7% to 24,442.94, and the Dow Jones dropped 2.2% to 51,594.86.
Investors are now turning their attention to earnings reports from Microsoft and Meta after market close, which will serve as the next major test for the pressured AI sector.
Chip stocks remained under pressure, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recording a five-day losing streak for the first time since late December. The decline was driven by concerns over massive AI investments, including Nvidia’s potential funding plans for an OpenAI data center project, as well as intensifying competition from China in the semiconductor industry.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said the policy discussion was intense, focusing on persistent inflation, economic shocks, price pressures, and the effectiveness of monetary policy. He also highlighted rising U.S. Treasury yields, which have contributed to tighter financial conditions.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks weakened on Wednesday as oil prices rose 3% amid escalating Middle East tensions and pressure on global technology stocks, despite solid earnings reports from major companies. The STOXX 600 fell 0.3%, the DAX declined 0.1%, the CAC 40 dropped 0.6%, the FTSE 100 gained 0.3%, and the IBEX 35 fell 1.7%. Bond markets remained under pressure as government bond yields rose ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian stocks declined on Wednesday, led by South Korea, as the technology sell-off continued ahead of major U.S. corporate earnings and the Fed’s interest rate decision.
Sentiment was also pressured after Iran launched renewed attacks on U.S. forces, pushing oil prices higher and raising concerns over inflation and interest rates. Investors continued to monitor elevated AI valuations, large capital expenditures, and increasing competition in the semiconductor industry.
South Korea’s KOSPI fell more than 6%, led by declines in SK Hynix (-12%) and Samsung Electronics (-8%). In Japan, the Nikkei 225 dropped around 1.3%, while Kioxia and Murata Manufacturing each plunged more than 15%. A powerful earthquake off Japan’s eastern coast also triggered tsunami warnings, although no major damage to industrial facilities was reported.
Meanwhile, Chinese equities outperformed the region, with the Hang Seng rising around 1.5%, the CSI 300 gaining 0.5%, and the Shanghai Composite increasing 0.2%, supported by investor rotation into domestic stocks.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices eased on Thursday as tankers continued shipping from the Middle East despite rising regional tensions and the widening U.S.-Iran conflict.
Brent crude fell 0.9% to USD87.30 per barrel, while WTI declined 0.9% to USD83.70 per barrel. Previously, Brent surged 7.91% and WTI rose 6.56% in the previous session after recovering from a roughly 5% decline following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire pause.
Preliminary shipping data showed 39 commodity vessels passed through the Bab elMandeb Strait into the Red Sea on Tuesday, the highest number since July 19, while only a few vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 0.64% at 6,091.39 on Wednesday. The JCI remains in a consolidation phase, with key trading ranges at 6,000–6,200– 6,400. Meanwhile, foreign investors recorded net foreign selling of IDR183.1 billion, while market focus has shifted toward the earnings season, leading investors to become more selective by favoring stocks with strong fundamentals and solid earnings prospects.
Technically, the 6,000 level remains a crucial support area for the JCI. However, the latest candlestick pattern resembles a hammer, accompanied by easing selling volume, indicating that selling pressure is weakening and a technical rebound could occur if supported by positive catalysts.
For today’s session, the market still requires clarity on several domestic factors to determine the next direction. Technically, the 6,000, 6,200, and 6,400 levels remain key areas that will determine the JCI’s short-term movement.
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