Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed higher on Thursday after the U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace agreement that ended military operations and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement marks the beginning of a two-month negotiation period toward a final peace deal, boosting overall market risk sentiment.
The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to 7,497.86, the NASDAQ surged 1.9% to 26,517.93, and the Dow Jones rose 0.1% to 51,565.26. For the week, the S&P 500 advanced 0.9%, the NASDAQ climbed 2.4%, and the Dow Jones added 0.7%. U.S. markets were closed on Friday for the Juneteenth holiday.
Earlier, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with expectations. However, its latest dot plot continued to signal the possibility of a 25-basis-point rate hike later this year. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh also announced a comprehensive review of the central bank’s policies, covering its communication strategy, balance sheet, data usage, the impact of AI on productivity and the labor market, and the inflation framework, while maintaining the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
On the corporate front, Intel shares surged after President Donald Trump announced that Apple would partner with Intel to design and manufacture chips in the United States. Other semiconductor stocks, including Marvell and Micron, also gained, while Apple edged higher after CEO Tim Cook hinted at potential product price increases to offset rising memory and storage chip costs.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European equities closed mixed on Thursday as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance overshadowed the positive sentiment from the signing of the interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement.
The STOXX 600 slipped 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 gained 0.4%, Italy’s FTSE MIB rose 0.2%, Germany’s DAX advanced 0.4%, and Spain’s IBEX 35 fell 0.1%.
The mixed performance reflected investors’ cautious stance. Although the U.S.-Iran peace deal initially lifted optimism and pushed oil prices lower, sentiment was tempered by expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain higher for longer.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian markets closed higher on Thursday after reports that the U.S. and Iran had signed a framework peace agreement to end their nearly fourmonth conflict.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 was the region’s best performer, surging nearly 2% to a record high of 71,477, while the TOPIX also gained 2% to an all-time high. South Korea’s KOSPI climbed nearly 1% to a record 8,976.55, supported by gains in semiconductor and artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, including SK Hynix, which rose 5% after shipping samples of its latest memory chip to key customers.
In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.8% to an 11-month low, weighed down by technology stocks such as Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, and Xiaomi. Market sentiment was also pressured by concerns over Beijing’s tighter restrictions on cross-border investments, which could reduce capital inflows from mainland Chinese investors into Hong Kong.
• COMMODITIES :Oil prices declined in Friday trading and were on track for a weekly loss of around 10%, as optimism over the interim U.S.-Iran peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz eased concerns about disruptions to global oil supplies. Brent crude fell 1.1% to USD 79.01 per barrel, while WTI slipped 0.7% to USD 76.05 per barrel. Both benchmarks were trading near their lowest levels since early March, when the U.S.-Iran conflict intensified. Market sentiment improved after Washington and Tehran signed an interim agreement to end the conflict and restore commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that carries around 20% of the world’s oil supply. Investors now expect millions of barrels of previously stranded crude to gradually return to global markets over the coming weeks and months. The U.S. has also lifted its blockade on Iran, while reports indicated that oil tankers have begun sailing through the Strait of Hormuz once again
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed 0.55% lower at 6,220.74, mainly dragged down by declines in Barito Group stocks, while Sinarmas Group’s DSSA also contributed to the market weakness.
The decline in global crude oil prices to below USD 80 per barrel is viewed as a positive development for Indonesia’s state budget, as it is expected to ease fiscal pressure and provide support for the domestic equity market this week.
Continue to apply trailing stops on your selected stocks. If the JCI manages to break above 6,250, the next upside targets are in the 6,375–6,400 range before testing 6,640. However, failure to sustain gains above that level could see the index retest the psychological support at 6,000.
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