Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed higher on Friday, driven by hopes of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran, as well as the strong market debut of SpaceX shares. Market sentiment was also supported by improving U.S. consumer confidence data and easing inflation expectations.
The S&P 500 Index rose 0.5% to 7,430.86, the Dow Jones gained 0.7% to 51,202.29, and the NASDAQ advanced 0.3% to 25,888.84. After facing pressure due to concerns over potential Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and the cooling AI stock rally, the U.S. stock market managed to recover and recorded weekly gains.
SpaceX shares closed around 19% above their IPO price, with a valuation exceeding USD 2 trillion after raising USD 75 billion in the largest IPO in history. The successful IPO became an important indicator for the prospects of other major AI company IPOs such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
From the economic side, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index increased to 48.9 in June from 44.8 in May, supported by lower gasoline prices. One-year inflation expectations declined to 4.6% from 4.8%, while long-term inflation expectations fell to 3.4% from 3.9%.
Although inflation data showed improvement, inflation remains above the Fed’s target and the labor market remains strong, keeping expectations for further interest rate hikes in place.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks surged on Friday, approaching their highest levels in nearly three months after the strongest signals yet emerged that a peace agreement between Iran and the U.S. is getting closer.
The STOXX 600 Index rose 1.9%, reaching its highest level since February 27 and potentially erasing all losses since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, marking its strongest daily gain in more than a month.
Gains were seen across major European markets. Germany’s DAX rose 1.7%, France’s CAC 40 surged 1.8% to its highest level in nearly two months, the UK’s FTSE 100 gained 1.6%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 2% to a new record high.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks surged on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed optimism regarding a peace agreement with Iran. Technology and semiconductor stocks also rebounded strongly after facing pressure in recent sessions.
South Korea’s KOSPI was the best-performing index in Asia, jumping more than 8%, supported by gains in major chip stocks. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 3.5% and TOPIX gained 1.7%, with market attention turning to the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, where policymakers are expected to consider raising interest rates due to energy-driven inflation pressures
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced, supported by technology and internet stocks, including Alibaba, which gained 2% after reports that it made a USD 1.5 billion offer to acquire Chinese grocery retailer Pupu to strengthen its online grocery business. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite both jumped 1.6%, as regional market risk sentiment improved.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices fell to their lowest level since March on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump and Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister stated that they had reached an initial agreement to end the war and reopen shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude fell 4.1% to USD 83.75 per barrel, while WTI declined 4.72% to USD 80.87 per barrel, extending losses of more than 3% recorded on the previous Friday.
The U.S. and Iran are reportedly set to sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, with Pakistan acting as a mediator. Trump stated that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened without toll fees and the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports would be lifted. The draft agreement also mentions reopening the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iran’s arrangements.
The market is now monitoring how quickly Middle Eastern oil producers can restore production and exports after disruptions caused by the war, as well as whether shipping activity in the region can return to normal.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher by 2.07% to 6,007.66 in Friday’s trading, supported by gains in several major index movers such as BBCA, DSSA, TPIA, and commodity-based stocks including AMMN, BUMI, ANTM, and others, following greater clarity regarding DSI’srole as a supervisory body only
The next support level is the psychological area of 6,000, while the next resistance level is around 6,150. The key issue currently being monitored is whether Indonesia will maintain its status as an MSCI emerging market. Investors considering buying should pay attention to support and resistance levels, as the market remains highly volatile and fragile toward ongoing issues.
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