Today’s Outlook:

US MARKET: Market was whipsawed by developments out of Washington, D.C., with negotiations on tariffs between the U.S., Mexico and Canada playing out throughout the week. In an interview that aired Sunday, President Donald Trump responded to a question on Fox News about the possibility of a recession by saying the economy was going through “a period of transition.” The political turbulence could continue this week, with a heavy dose of economic data adding to the list of potential market-moving events. The New York Fed survey of consumer expectations is due out on Monday, and it will pair with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading on Friday.

MARKET SENTIMENT : Japan’s 4Q24 GDP results will be released on Monday. Indonesia will be churning out Februaru number for Car Sales, Motorbike Sales, and Consumer Confidence

FIXED INCOME & CURRENCY : Treasury yields advanced Friday as investors digested a February nonfarm payrolls report that showed weaker-than-expected jobs growth and the latest commentary from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed about 2 basis points to 4.303%. The 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 2 basis points at 3.987%. One basis point is equal to 0.01% and yields and prices move in opposite directions. The dollar index has fallen 3.5% this week, on track for its worst weekly performance since November 2022. It fell 0.4% on Friday to 103.72, after earlier sliding to its lowest since early November.

EUROPE: European markets closed lower Friday, rounding off a volatile week marked by whipsawing policy on U.S. tariffs, the l atest rate cut from the European Central Bank, German fiscal reforms and a regional defense spending boost. Investors were also reacting to key jobs data out of the U.S., which showed nonfarm payrolls rose by a less-than-expected 151,000 in February.

– The euro continued its winning ways, poised for its best week in 16 years with a gain of 4.6% against the dollar, boosted by Germany’s game-changing fiscal reforms. It hit another four-month peak of $1.0888 after the jobs data. It last traded at $1.0863, up 0.7% .

ASIA : Asia-Pacific markets fell on Friday, with yields on long-term Japanese government bonds hitting levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. The moves in Asia markets mirrored losses on Wall Street after U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff concessions failed to calm investors. Traders were also worried by economic data from the U.S., which raised alarm that Trump’s policies could hinder the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing reading both indicated fear of rising input costs because of the tariffs. Back in Asia, customs data showed China’s exports in the January to February period rose 2.3% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, significantly undershooting expectations of a 5% increase in a Reuters poll.

– Against the Japanese currency, the greenback slid 0.2% against the yen to 147.65 yen , after earlier falling to a five-month low of 147.05 yen.

COMMODITIES : OIL prices were up on Friday but retreated from session highs after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened sanctions on Russia if it fails to reach a cease-fire with Ukraine. Trump said in a post on Truth Social that he was “strongly considering” sanctions on Russian banks and tariffs on Russian products because its armed forces continue attacks in Ukraine. In early trade, Brent jumped as high as $71.40, while WTI hit $68.22 after Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak told reporters that the OPEC+ producer group will go ahead with its April increase but may then consider other steps, including reducing production. GOLD fell 0.1% to $2,906.04 an ounce as of 01.46 p.m. (1846 GMT). Bullion has gained about 1.7% so far this week, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s ever-shifting tariff policies fanned uncertainty. Gold prices eased on Friday but were poised for a weekly gain due to safe-haven inflows and a U.S. jobs report revealing lower-than-expected job growth in February, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is on track to cut interest rates this year.

Domestic News
Government Aims for IDR 10 Trillion from Sukuk Auction Next Tuesday
The government on Tuesday, March 11, 2025 will hold another auction of State Sharia Securities (SBSN) or State Sukuk to meet part of the financing target in the 2025 State Budget. The SBSN series to be auctioned are the SPN-S series (Surat Perbendaharaan Negara – Syariah) and PBS (Project Based Sukuk) There are seven series of State Sukuk that will be auctioned, namely the SPNS01092025 series (reopening), SPNS08122025 series (new issuance), PBS003 series (reopening), PBS030 series (reopening), PBS034 series (reopening), PBS039 series (reopening), and PBS038 series (reopening). The SPNS01092025 and SPNS08122025 series provide a discount, while the PBS003 series provides a coupon of 6%, PBS030 series at 5.875%, PBS034 at 6.5%, PBS039 series at 6.625%, and PBS038 series at 6.875%. The auction will be held on March 11, 2025, while the settlement is on March 13, 2025. The underlying assets of the auction are projects/activities in the 2025 State Budget and State Property. Of the seven series of SBSN or State Sukuk auctioned, the Ministry of Finance set an indicative target of IDR 10 trillion with a maximum target of IDR 20 trillion. (Emiten News)

Corporate News
ADMF: Adira Finance Stops Sustainable Public Offering VI of 2023 Bonds
PT Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk or Adira Finance (ADMF) said that it has stopped the Sustainable Public Offering (PUB) VI Bonds Year 2023 with a remaining ceiling of IDR 383.007 billion. Launching the disclosure of information from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), Friday (7/3) Director of Adira Finance Sylvanus Gani Kukuh Mendrofa explained that on the same occasion the company also terminated the Public Offering of Sustainable Sukuk Mudharabah V Adira Finance Year 2023 whose entire ceiling had been used. “The termination of the remaining target funds that were not collected was carried out in consideration of the new Sustainable Public Offering,” Gani said in his official statement, Friday (7/3). This decision is expected to maximize the potential of funding sources to meet the company’s financing growth needs in the future. For information, the PUB Sustainable Bond VI Adira Finance Phase I Year 2023 and PUB Sustainable Sukuk Mudharabah V Adira Finance Phase I Year 2023 have been declared effective on June 27, 2023. (Kontan)

Recommendation

US10YT jumped by 0.63% to 4.309%. America’s benchmark bond yield reverted from its previous uptrend into a downtrend as Trump continues his tarrif policies and trade war on other global powerhouses despite economists point to a high likelihood of the country entering a recession by the end of 2025.

ID10YT has a measely correction of 0.26% to 6.869% after recoiling back below its resistance of 6.898%, and the next resistance to be tested is 7.022%. It is believed most investors are worried of the implications from the launching for Indonesia’s Sovereign Wealth Fund Danantara.

Download full report HERE.