Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks moved slightly around the flat line on Monday and ultimately closed mixed, as investors prepared for a very busy week—ranging from central bank decisions, economic data releases, to earnings reports from major technology companies. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 7,173.89, while the NASDAQ Composite gained 0.2% to 24,887.10—both closing at record levels. In contrast, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% to 49,168.04.
Last week, Wall Street’s main indexes also posted a mixed performance, with the strong rally since late March beginning to slow. This was driven by a surge in oil prices amid rising tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, as well as stalled diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran. This week is expected to be filled with potential market catalysts, including interest rate decisions from major central banks such as the Bank of Japan, European Central Bank, and Federal Reserve, which will likely reflect the impact of the Middle East conflict. In addition, key data such as U.S. GDP and the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge will be released.
Market participants are also closely watching quarterly earnings from members of the “Magnificent 7,” namely Alphabet Inc., Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta Platforms on Wednesday, followed by Apple on Thursday. This comes amid a strong rebound in the AI sector, where the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index recorded its longest daily winning streak in history with a total gain of 47.2%.
On the geopolitical front, planned U.S.–Iran peace talks failed to materialize over the weekend. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had been scheduled to meet U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and American businessman Jared Kushner in Pakistan.
Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump and his security team were reported to be skeptical of Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and postpone discussions on its nuclear program. According to a report by The Wall Street Journal, although he did not outright reject the offer, Trump doubted Iran’s good faith and its commitment to the key U.S. demand—ending nuclear enrichment and pledging not to develop nuclear weapons.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks declined on Monday as investors assessed stalled negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, indicating that disruptions to global oil supply that have lasted for weeks may continue. The pan-European Stoxx 600 fell 0.3%, the FTSE 100 dropped 0.6%, the DAX slipped 0.1%, and the CAC 40 declined 0.2%.
Over the weekend, U.S. President Donald Trump canceled plans to send negotiators to Pakistan for a new round of talks with Iran. He stated that Tehran could “call him directly” as the U.S. believes it “holds all the cards.”
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets were mostly higher on Monday, following mixed cues from Wall Street on Friday. Markets in Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea posted significant gains, although traders remained cautious over uncertainty surrounding the second round of U.S.–Iran peace talks. Investors also engaged in bargain hunting after the recent conflict-driven market downturn.
In Japan, the stock market surged sharply, extending gains from the previous session. The Nikkei 225 broke above the 60,550 level, driven by gains across most sectors, particularly heavyweights, financials, and technology stocks.
The Nikkei 225 closed the morning session at 60,584.37, up 868.19 points or 1.45%, after touching a high of 60,652.98 earlier. Major stocks such as SoftBank Group rose more than 1%, while Fast Retailing gained over 2%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rose in early Asian trading on Tuesday, extending previous gains as markets monitored the possibility of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased 0.3% to USD 96.62 per barrel, after surging more than 2% previously. Reports earlier this week indicated Tehran had proposed reopening Hormuz and ending the war, which is currently under consideration by Washington. However, a report by The Wall Street Journal stated that President Donald Trump and his team remain skeptical, as the proposal includes postponing discussions on Iran’s nuclear program.
Meanwhile, wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade turned higher on Monday, supported by rising oil prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, and a war risk premium from escalating Middle East tensions. Market participants are also monitoring rainfall in the U.S. Plains, which could ease drought stress on wheat crops, although some areas may have already suffered yield losses and rainfall distribution remains uneven. Over the next two weeks, rain is expected in the region, but about one-third of winter wheat is still projected to remain under stress in the near term
• INDONESIA : The JCI is still correcting, down 0.32% in the red zone at 7,106, with the last key support at the psychological level of 7,000. The Indonesian market is beginning to show resilience to U.S.–Iran geopolitical sentiment, while upcoming IHSG reform initiatives—starting with the release of HCL—are providing positive momentum. However, caution is still warranted due to volatility driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Selling pressure from BREN and DSSA continues to weigh on the index following their exclusion from LQ45, IDX30, and IDX80. On the positive side, post-HCL implementation, IDX’s adoption aligns more closely with MSCI standards. Investors should remain cautious of selling pressure in big banks—despite attractive valuations—as heavy selling persists amid Indonesia’s macroeconomic contraction.
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