Highlights of July 2019’s Trade Balance

Indonesia Trade Balance of July 2019 posted a deficit of USD63 million, a decrease from June’s surplus of USD297 million. July’s trade performance was below our estimate of USD100 billion surplus and market consensus of USD400 million deficit. The sharp increase in oil& gas exports and nonoil& gas imports were main culprits of July’s deficit.

July’s oil& gas exports saw a 115.5% m-m surge to USD1.6 billion, while July’s oil& gas imports only nudged up 2.0% m-m to USD1.7 billion. On the other hand, the nonoil& gas imports saw a sharp surge of 40.7% m-m to USD13.7 billion. The sharp surge showed the imbalance between the nonoil& gas imports and nonoil& gas exports. The nonoil& gas exports only edged up 25.3% m-m to USD13.8 billion. This condition is hampered by a global economic slowdown and low commodities prices.


Impacts of Surging Oil& Gas Exports

July’s exports saw only a 5.1% y-y decrease, much lower than a 9.1% y-y decrease in June also our estimate of a 14.4% y-y decrease. The lower decrease was attributable to the rising oil& gas exports (July’s 13.3% y-y vs. June’s -55.6%) despite the deep contraction of nonoil& gas exports (July’s -6.8% y-y vs. June’s -2.2%). The favorable oil& gas exports were attributed to exports of crude oil refineries skyrocketing to 275.6% y-y: a sharp surge from June’s 26.1% y-y growth. The favorable figure was also on the back of the increase of 10.4% y-y in gas exports. In conclusion, July’s exports posted an increase of USD3.7 billion to USD15.4 billion due to the normal trade activities after Idulfitri.

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