XA Update Report | PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk. (INDF) – Agribusiness Continues to Carry the Baton into FY26

 

 

By Steven Willie (Research Associate)

27-Apr-2026

 

 

INDF delivered a solid FY25, with revenue growing +6.7% YoY to IDR 123.5 tn — coming in at 102% of our estimates. The beat was broad-based across segments, with full-year momentum carrying through to 4Q25, where revenue rose +13% YoY (+4% QoQ) to IDR 32.5 tn. The standout performer was Agribusiness, which surged +32% YoY on the back of CPO prices rising +10% YoY to IDR 14,101/kg (vs. IDR 12,807/kg in FY24). Distribution followed with a steady +6% YoY, while CBP and Bogasari grew more moderately at +3% and +2% YoY, respectively. Gross margin contracted to 33% (vs. 35% in FY24). That said, operating discipline was evident: OPEX grew a contained +2% YoY, keeping OPM stable at 20%. A turnaround in income from associates and joint ventures provided significant bottomline support, propelling NPM to 9% (vs. 7% in FY24) and driving net profit up +24% YoY to IDR 10.7 tn.

 

 

🔹 FY25 & 4Q25 Financial Performance

 

• Top-line beat, broad-based resilience. INDF delivered a solid FY25, with revenue growing +6.7% YoY to IDR 123.5 tn — coming in at 102% of our estimates. The beat was broad-based across segments, with full-year momentum carrying through to 4Q25, where revenue rose +13% YoY (+4% QoQ) to IDR 32.5 tn.

 

 

• Agribusiness leads the charge. The standout performer was Agribusiness, which surged +32% YoY on the back of CPO prices rising +10% YoY to IDR 14,101/kg (vs. IDR 12,807/kg in FY24). Distribution followed with a steady +6% YoY, while CBP and Bogasari grew more moderately at +3% and +2% YoY, respectively.

 

 

• Margin compression, but discipline holds. Gross margin contracted to 33% (vs. 35% in FY24), as higher input costs were only partially passed through across segments — CBP EBIT margin eased to 21% (vs. 22%) and Agribusiness to 20% (vs. 23%). That said, operating discipline was evident: OPEX grew a contained +2% YoY, keeping OPM stable at 20%.

 

 

• Bottomline rescued by associate turnaround. The more meaningful swing came from below the operating line. A turnaround in income from associates and joint ventures — posting a gain of IDR 27.4 bn versus a loss of IDR 1.4 tn in FY24 — provided significant bottomline support, propelling NPM to 9% (vs. 7% in FY24) and driving net profit up +24% YoY to IDR 10.7 tn

 

 

 

🔹 FY26 Outlook: Agribusiness to Stay in the Driver’s Seat

 

• Agribusiness remains the top-line anchor. We project FY26 revenue at IDR 130.9 tn (+5.5% YoY), with Agribusiness remaining the primary growth driver. The CPO tailwind looks set to persist as global CPO prices have already risen approximately +11–12% YTD to around MYR 4,400–4,500/MT, underpinned by Indonesia’s B50 and Malaysia’s B12 biodiesel mandates — both of which are expected to reduce seaborne supply. Potential supply tightening in Malaysia in 2H26F adds a further upside catalyst.

 

 

• Margin recovery remains patient. We expect cost pressures to persist into FY26, primarily driven by the continued rise in CPO input costs. While management’s ASP adjustments should partially offset the headwinds, full pass-through is unlikely in the near term. As a result, we forecast FY26F GPM to remain broadly stable at 33.6%, with OPM at 20% and NPM at 12%. Net profit is projected to grow +4% YoY to IDR 11.1 tn.

 

 

 

🔹 OVERWEIGHT Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 7,750/Share

 

• We maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating on INDF with a target price of IDR 7,750. Agribusiness continues to punch above its weight, delivering outsized revenue contributions that offset moderation in CBP and Bogasari. With the stock currently trading at a compelling 5.7x P/E, we view current levels as an attractive entry point for investors seeking defensive exposure to Indonesia’s staples sector.

 

 

• Risks : (1) Weaker-than-expected consumer purchasing power; (2) higher-than-anticipated input costs, particularly key raw materials; (3) intensifying competition from substitute and competing brands; and (4) IDR depreciation

 

 

Download full report HERE.

 

 

 

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id