XA Update Report | PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk. (SMDR) – Tailwinds Of A Turnaround with Improved Operational Cash Flow
By Ezaridho Ibnutama (Head of Research), Graceline Melinda (Associate) & Sri Bintang Radhya (Associate)
12-May-2026
We maintain our BUY rating on SMDR with an upgraded TP of IDR 500 because of the geopolitical uncertainties primarily capitulated by the US-Iran-Israel conflict disrupting maritime traffic and causing rising shipping logistic fees. This event has offset the downward pull from global shipping oversupply. Moreover, as Trump’s tariff war has cooled down with the implementation of 15% Global Tariff and the agreement of US-Indonesia trade deal in early 2026, we are of the view these two factors has the potential to offset pressures from the hike in oil prices.
🔹 1Q26 Top-Line Holding Flat While Bottom-Line Slips
• Domestic Revenue Faltering While Middle East Surges. 1Q26 top-line landed at USD 184 mn, growing only 1.8% YoY (vs 15.8% YoY in 1Q25) and tracking at 21% run rate to our FY26F target. The revenue was dragged by Indonesia-based contract geographical segment (55% of FY25 revenue) which contracted 11% YoY to USD 82 mn, reflecting the domestic macro slowdown. Southeast Asian (SEA) nations (exc. Indonesia) also softened, declining 11% YoY to USD 56 mn. Offsetting this, Middle East and India rebounded sharply, growing 27% YoY to USD 29 mn, while 1Q26 Other Nations segment multiplied 8x to USD 16 mn (from USD 2 mn in 1Q25) on new contract wins.
• Geographic Mix Shifting Away From Indonesia. Indonesia’s revenue contribution fell to 45% in 1Q26 (from 51% in 1Q25), as the domestic segment shed USD 10 mn YoY against a backdrop of weaker import volumes. Middle East & India climbed to 16% (from 13%) on rerouting demand around the Strait of Hormuz, contributing USD 6 mn of incremental revenue. Most notably, Other Nations expanded to 9% (from 1%), adding USD 14 mn on new contract wins in the Pacific corridor — collectively offsetting USD 17 mn of combined Indonesia and SEA contraction and evidencing SMDR’s diversification away from the domestic slowdown.
• Gross Margin Pressured Down From Shipping Costs. SMDR’s 1Q26 Gross Margin compressed from 20% in 1Q25 into 17% in 1Q26. The expense pressure was mainly from Shipping and Agency cost increasing by 8% YoY to USD 123 mn, outpacing the modest top-line growth.
• Bottom-line Faultering. Despite a lower 1Q26 NPM of 5.5% (from 8.6% in 1Q25), 1Q26 NP attributable to owners contracted 35% YoY to USD 10 mn, a sharp reversal from the +53% YoY growth posted in 1Q25. 1Q26 NP only breached 17% of our forecasted run-rate to FY26F.
• Net Cash Flow Swings Positive On Stronger Operations. 1Q26 Net Cash Flow swung positively with a USD +20 mn (from USD -4 mn in 1Q25) to an ending cash balance at USD 337 mn. 1Q26 Operating CF more than doubled to USD 37 mn (1Q25: USD 18 mn). 1Q26 Investing CF widened to USD -26 mn (1Q25: USD -6 mn) with USD 9 mn of CAPEX for fleet renewal and Patimban-related infrastructure. Financing CF flipped to USD +9 mn (1Q25: USD -15 mn) as SMDR pushed for USD 28 mn of net new debt to fund the CAPEX cycle.
🔹 Maintaining BUY Recommendation with TP at IDR 500 /Share
• We maintain our BUY rating on SMDR with an upgraded TP of IDR 500 (Previously IDR 400) because of the geopolitical uncertainties primarily capitulated by the US-Iran-Israel conflict disrupting maritime traffic and causing rising shipping logistic fees. This event has offset the downward pull from global shipping oversupply. Moreover, as Trump’s tariff war has cooled down with the implementation of 15% Global Tariff and the agreement of US-Indonesia trade deal in early 2026, we are of the view these two factors has the potential to offset pressures from the hike in oil prices. Currently, the company is trading at 6.81x P/E which is +1 std. dev. to its 3-Year Average P/E. We also favor the company’s geographical diversification strategy into Japan as a hedge against the dominant contributions from the Middle East and Indosphere.
• Risks : (1) Prolonged Closure For Strait of Hormuz; (2) Rising Fuel Prices Placing Pressure On Operational Expenses; and (3) Vulnerability In Domestic Shipments From Macroeconomic Slowdown
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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id
