XA UPDATE REPORT | Aneka Tambang Tbk. (ANTM) – Nickel Lifts 9M26 Earnings, Gold Yet to Regain Its Luster

 

by Steven Willie (Research Analyst)
29 October 2026

 

ANTM’s 9M26 results were in line, with revenue of IDR 88.48 tn (+22.8% YoY, 74.3% of our FY26F) and net profit of IDR 8.84 tn (+47.9% YoY, 77.3% of our FY26F). In 3Q26, revenue nearly doubled (+98.1% YoY) but fell -22.8% QoQ on lower gold volume, while a richer nickel mix lifted OPM to 14.0% (vs. 11.8% in 2Q26). We see further pressure on nickel margin and gold ASP in 4Q26, but at IDR 2,700/share ANTM trades at only 5.7x FY26F P/E with a 12.3% dividend yield at FY25’s 70% payout. We maintain our FY26F, BUY rating and TP of IDR 4,200/share (+55.6% upside).

 

 

🔹 9M26 & 3Q26 Financial Performance

  • Topline growth held in 9M26, though 3Q26 softened QoQ on gold volume. ANTM recorded 9M26 revenue of IDR 88.48 tn (a run-rate of 74.3% of our FY26F), up +22.8% YoY. In 3Q26 alone, revenue reached IDR 25.77 tn, up +98.1% YoY from a low 3Q25 base but down -22.8% QoQ, as gold sales volume fell -25.8% QoQ to 7,137 kg. Nickel segment cushioned the gap as its 3Q26 revenue nearly doubled (+99.5% YoY) to IDR 6.57 tn, lifting its share of revenue to 25.5% (vs. 16.6% in 1H26). Bauxite and alumina revenue rose +35.3% YoY to IDR 2.64 tn in 9M26, as bauxite ore revenue nearly doubled (+94.3% YoY).
  • Nickel mix drove margin expansion. 9M26 gross profit rose +41.6% YoY to IDR 15.56 tn and operating profit grew +52.8% YoY to IDR 12.05 tn, lifting GPM to 17.6% and OPM to 13.6% (vs. 15.2% and 11.0% in 9M25). Nickel drove 93% of the IDR 4.16 tn operating profit increase, as its EBIT margin expanded to 50.6% (vs. 42.2% in 9M25) and its revenue share rose to 19.2% (vs. 15.5% in 9M25). Precious metals EBIT margin was flat at 6.4% (vs. 6.5% in 9M25), while bauxite and alumina eased to 21.0% (vs. 23.2% in 9M25). EBITDA rose +45.8% YoY to IDR 12.86 tn, a 14.5% margin (vs. 12.2% in 9M25). In 3Q26, a higher nickel revenue share of 25.5% (vs. 16.6% in 1H26) lifted GPM to 18.3% and OPM to 14.0% (vs. 15.7% and 11.8% in 2Q26, and 21.1% and 13.4% in 3Q25).
  • Below-the-line items were mixed, but net profit stayed on track. Higher associates’ income (+114.7% YoY to IDR 300.6 bn) and FX gains (IDR 417.1 bn vs. IDR 153.6 bn in 9M25) offset a 4.3x jump in finance costs to IDR 445.5 bn. As a result, 9M26 net profit rose +47.9% YoY to IDR 8.84 tn (a run-rate of 77.3% of our FY26F), lifting NPM to 10.0% (vs. 8.3% in 9M25). 3Q26 net profit reached IDR 2.45 tn (+91.6% YoY, -17.9% QoQ), with NPM at 9.5% (vs. 8.9% in 2Q26 and 9.8% in 3Q25).

 

🔹 Nickel Tailwind Softens, Gold Offers Little Relief

  • Nickel pricing is the key swing factor for margins. LME nickel trades at ~US$15,600/t, -7.0% below its July-August average, as Indonesian supply growth outpaces demand weighed down by soft stainless steel consumption and rising LFP adoption. A lower 2H October HPM and the expanded national quota of ~290mn tons add pressure. Reported production cuts at Chinese-operated Indonesian smelters could tighten supply, but their scale and timing remain uncertain. We expect nickel EBIT margin to compress further from 49.0% in 3Q26, partly offset by ~5.9mn wmt of remaining quota headroom and ~1.4mn wmt of unsold ore.

 

  • Fed path will steer gold ASP into year-end. Gold now trades at ~US$4,050/oz, -5.4% below its 3Q26 average of ~US$4,280/oz, which was itself down -5.2% QoQ from ~US$4,510/oz in 2Q26. The correction reflects a firmer USD and hawkish Fed expectations. If prices hold at current levels, 4Q26 gold ASP would decline further QoQ.

 

🔹 Maintain BUY Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 4,200/Share

  • We maintain our BUY rating on ANTM with a target price of IDR 4,200/share, implying +55.6% upside from the current price of IDR 2,700/share. Our TP implies 8.8x FY26F P/E and 6.0x FY26F EV/EBITDA. At the current price, ANTM trades at only 5.68x FY26F P/E, below its 3-year -1 SD P/E of 5.73x, and 3.82x FY26F EV/EBITDA. Assuming ANTM retains FY25’s 70% payout ratio, the stock offers an FY26F dividend yield of 12.3%.

 

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