Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk. (ICBP) : Volume-Led Acceleration, Raising FY26 Forecast
by Fadly Rafiudin (Research Analyst)
4 November 2026
ICBP delivered a strong 9M26, with revenue up +15% YoY to IDR 64.4 tn, as 3Q26 accelerated to +21% YoY (+12% QoQ) on double-digit volume growth across its product categories, driven by new launches. Gross margin narrowed to 34.1% (vs. 35.4% in 9M25) on higher input costs, while net forex losses of IDR 3.3 tn (vs. IDR 1.4 tn) pulled 9M26 net profit down -13% YoY to IDR 6.2 tn. That said, 3Q26 net profit rebounded to IDR 2.5 tn (+57% YoY) as the forex loss narrowed to IDR 391 bn. With 9M26 revenue running ahead of our previous forecast, we raise our FY26F revenue forecast to IDR 83.9 tn (+12% YoY) and our net profit forecast to IDR 8.8 tn. We upgrade ICBP to “Buy” with an unchanged TP of IDR 6,850/share, implying 15.6% upside.
🔹 3Q26 & 9M26 Financial Performance
Top-line acceleration, powered by volume. 9M26 revenue grew +15% YoY to IDR 64.4 tn, an 82% run-rate of our previous FY26 forecast of IDR 78.6 tn and ahead of the historical 9M contribution of 75–76%. 3Q26 revenue alone jumped +21% YoY (+12% QoQ) to IDR 22.6 tn, up from +16% YoY in 2Q26. Management attributed the acceleration to double-digit volume growth across all its product categories, supported by a broad pipeline of new product launches in 2026.
Every segment grew double digits in 3Q26. Noodles, which make up 75% of gross segment sales, grew +14% YoY in 9M26 and +20% YoY in 3Q26 (+12% QoQ). Dairy (+20% YoY in 9M26; +31% YoY/+14% QoQ in 3Q26) and nutrition & special foods (+22% YoY; +33% YoY/+10% QoQ) remained the fastest-growing segments. Food seasonings (+12% YoY; +27% YoY/+19% QoQ) and snack foods (+12% YoY; +18% YoY/+11% QoQ) also accelerated. Beverages picked up to +19% YoY in 3Q26, bringing 9M26 growth to +6%. • Domestic growth accelerates, overseas stays strong. Overseas sales grew +23% YoY in 9M26, lifting their share to 33% of total sales (vs. 31% in 9M25). The bigger change was at home. Domestic sales accelerated to +20% YoY (+15% QoQ) in 3Q26, up from +7% YoY in 1H26.
Margins remain under pressure. 9M26 GPM eased to 34.1% (vs. 35.4% in 9M25). 3Q26 GPM was 33.7%, flat QoQ but down from 36.3% in 3Q25, reflecting higher input costs amid IDR weakness. Selling expenses rose +19% YoY, with freight & handling up +28% and A&P up +19% to support volume growth and new launces. As a result, 9M26 OPM fell to 21.2% (vs. 22.6%), with EBIT up +7% YoY to IDR 13.7 tn. By segment, noodles EBIT margin narrowed to 23.1% (vs. 24.8%). Dairy was the bright spot, with EBIT up +26% YoY and margin improving to 8.0% (vs. 7.6%).
Forex drag eased in 3Q26. ICBP booked net forex losses from financing activities of IDR 3.3 tn in 9M26 (vs.IDR 1.4 tn in 9M25), stemming from the revaluation of its USD 2.75 bn bonds as the IDR weakened to 17,998/USD at end-September (vs. IDR 16,782/USD at end-2025). This non-cash loss pulled 9M26 net profit down -13% YoY to IDR 6.2 tn (73% of our previous FY26F forecast), despite EBIT growth of +7%. The pace of IDR depreciation slowed markedly in 3Q26: the currency weakened only 0.8% during the quarter (IDR 17,856 to 17,998/USD), compared with 6.4% in 1H26 (IDR 16,782 to 17,856/USD). As a result, the forex loss narrowed sharply to IDR 391 bn in 3Q26 (vs. IDR 3.0 tn in 1H26 and IDR 1.2 tn in 3Q25), driving the rebound in 3Q26 net profit to IDR 2.5 tn (+57% YoY, +118% QoQ).
🔹 Raising Our FY26F Forecasts on Stronger Volume
9M26 beat our run-rate, prompting an upward revision. With 9M26 revenue already reaching 82% of our previous full-year forecast, well ahead of the historical 9M contribution of 75–76%, we raise our FY26 revenue forecast to IDR 83.9 tn (+12% YoY), from IDR 78.6 tn. We also raise our FY26 net profit forecast to IDR 8.8 tn from IDR 8.4 tn. We expect the growth to continue into 4Q26, supported by continued traction from new product launches, albeit at a more moderate pace after a strong 3Q26.
The IDR remains the key swing factor. A weaker IDR inflates non-cash forex losses on its USD 2.75 bn bonds and raises imported input costs, while a stronger IDR would reverse these effects through forex gains and cost relief. The IDR traded at 18,150/USD in early November (vs. 17,998 at end-September), so continued weakness would pose downside risk to our forecast.
Input costs stay elevated. Global CPO prices hover around MYR 4,500/ton, while wheat prices, at USD 6.0/bushel, with the impact amplified by IDR weakness. We lower our FY26F GPM to 34.0% (previously 35.0%), in line with 9M26 levels.
We upgrade ICBP to “Buy” from “Hold” with an unchanged TP of IDR 6,850/share, implying 15.6% upside, 9.1x FY26F P/E and 6.0x FY26F EV/EBITDA. 3Q26 confirmed ICBP’s strength: double-digit volume growth across all segments and strong traction from new product launches. Margin pressure from input costs and the IDR’s influence on the bottom line remain near-term risks.
Risks: (1) further IDR depreciation; (2) higher-than-anticipated input costs; (3) weaker consumer purchasing power; (4) intensifying competition from substitute and competing brands.
Download full report HERE
