XA Update Report | PT Bank Central Asia Tbk. (BBCA) – 3Q26: Back to Business – Recovering Loan Yields & Accelerating Loan Growth Support NIM Improvement Amid Industry-Wide Margin Pressures

 

by Leonardo Lijuwardi

29 October 2026

 

BBCA continued to deliver resilient earnings in 9M26, with profit growth gaining momentum alongside recovering loan yields and a revival in business activity. BBCA’s net profit grew +4.2% YoY to IDR 45.2T (9M25: IDR 43.4T | Quarterly Basis: +9.0% YoY & +5.6% QoQ; 3Q26: IDR 15.7T | 75.9% of NHKSI FY26 Estimate), supported by Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP) of IDR 58.5T (+2.5% YoY; Quarterly Basis: +5.1% QoQ; 3Q26: IDR 20.1T). Notably, Net Interest Income (NII) began to accelerate, reaching IDR 64.9T (+1.2% YoY) in 9M26, with quarterly NII increasing +5.2% QoQ to IDR 22.5T in 3Q26, driven by stronger loan growth and recovering loan yields, particularly in the Corporate segment. A key highlight was the improvement in BBCA’s Bank Only NIM to 5.6% in 3Q26 (2Q26: 5.3%), representing a +30bps QoQ expansion, contrasting with the ongoing NIM compression experienced by corporate banking peers such as BMRI and BBNI. This recovery was supported by the repricing of IDR-denominated Corporate loans, which lifted loan yields by +18bps QoQ, while Cost of Funds (CoF) remained relatively stable. Meanwhile, Non-Interest Income remained resilient, growing +7.6% YoY to IDR 20.1T, providing additional support to profitability. Operating efficiency was also well maintained, as reflected in a Cost-to-Income Ratio (CIR) of 29.7% in 9M26 (9M25: 29.2%), while quarterly CIR improved to 31.1% in 3Q26 (2Q26: 31.7%).

 

 

🔹 Lending Side: 9M26 – Back to Business, Accelerating Corporate Lending and Recovering Loan Yields

 

• Business Banking Loan Growth Accelerated Further. BBCA’s loan growth gained further momentum throughout 9M26, with total outstanding loans reaching IDR 1,063.1T (+12.6% YoY; Quarterly Basis: +2.7% QoQ), accelerating from +8.0% YoY in 2Q26. Growth was primarily driven by the Corporate segment, which expanded +20.9% YoY and +2.9% QoQ to IDR 528.1T, followed by a significant acceleration in SME loans, which grew +15.4% YoY and +10.8% QoQ to IDR 149.2T. Meanwhile, Commercial loans increased +7.8% YoY to IDR 154.1T, despite remaining relatively flat on a quarterly basis (+0.1% QoQ). The acceleration in business lending indicates a gradual recovery in financing activity, particularly in corporate investment and working capital loans.

• Consumer Lending Continued to Face Headwinds. Consumer loans remained under pressure, contracting -2.2% YoY and -1.1% QoQ to IDR 218.7T in 9M26, reflecting the incomplete recovery in domestic purchasing power and household consumption. The weakness was primarily attributable to automotive loans, which declined -20.6% YoY and -5.1% QoQ, while mortgages continued to record positive growth of +3.6% YoY despite a slight -0.4% QoQ contraction.
• 4Q26 Outlook: Loan Repricing Begins to Drive NIM Recovery in 2H26. Entering the final quarter of 2026, we expect the acceleration in Corporate and SME lending to remain a key catalyst for interest income growth. Notably, IDR-denominated Corporate loan yields improved by +18bps QoQ in 3Q26, while CoF remained relatively stable, supporting the recovery in NIM. This suggests that BBCA’s loan repricing strategy has begun to deliver positive results, in contrast to the continued margin pressure experienced by BMRI and BBNI amid higher funding costs. Supported by stronger loan growth and a solid financing pipeline, management raised its FY26 loan growth guidance to 10–11% from the previous 8–10%. We believe the revised target remains achievable, considering that loan growth had already reached +12.6% YoY as of 9M26.

 

 

🔹 Funding Side: Resilient Deposit Franchise Amid Elevated Funding Costs

 

• Deposit Growth Remained Solid, with CASA Ratio Improving Further. On the funding side, BBCA continued to demonstrate resilient liquidity fundamentals, underpinned by its strong CASA franchise, which remains a key competitive advantage. Third Party Funds (TPF) grew +8.0% YoY and +1.3% QoQ to IDR 1,301.3T in 9M26, while CASA increased +10.4% YoY and +1.9% QoQ to IDR 1,103.2T. Growth was primarily driven by Current Accounts, which expanded +14.9% YoY and +4.2% QoQ to IDR 463.1T, while Savings Accounts increased +7.4% YoY to IDR 640.1T. Meanwhile, Time Deposits declined -3.7% YoY and -1.8% QoQ to IDR 198.1T. BBCA’s CASA Ratio improved further to 84.8% in 3Q26 (2Q26: 84.3%), highlighting the strength of its deposit franchise amid intensifying competition for liquidity across the banking industry.

• Recovering Loan Yields Amid Relatively Stable CoF. Unlike 1H26, when rising CoF and subdued loan yields were the primary drivers of NIM compression, BBCA began to record a recovery in NIM during 3Q26, supported by successful loan repricing while CoF remained relatively stable. This performance differentiated BBCA from corporate banking peers such as BMRI and BBNI, which continued to face margin pressure. With a CASA Ratio of 84.8% and a relatively comfortable Bank Only Loan-to-Deposit Ratio (LDR) of 79.8%, we believe BBCA retains greater funding flexibility to support further loan expansion without aggressively raising its funding costs.

 

 

 

🔹 BBCA Maintained Solid Asset Quality Despite a Challenging Environment

 

• BBCA’s Asset Quality Improved Further in 3Q26. The Gross Non-Performing Loan (NPL) Ratio declined to 1.8% in 3Q26 (3Q25: 2.1%; 2Q26: 1.9%), while the Loan at Risk (LAR) Ratio improved further to 4.6% (3Q25: 5.5%; 2Q26: 4.9%). Meanwhile, Bank Only NPL Coverage and LAR Coverage increased to 167.5% and 71.2%, respectively, in 3Q26 (2Q26: 165.5% and 68.7%). In terms of Cost of Credit (CoC), gross CoC remained stable at 0.4% in 3Q26 (2Q26: 0.4%), while CoC after loan recoveries stood at 0.2%. Net provisioning expenses declined -25.6% YoY to IDR 2.5T in 9M26, providing additional support to bottom-line earnings growth. Overall, healthy asset quality provides BBCA with sufficient flexibility to maintain its lending expansion without a significant increase in credit risk.

🔹 FY26 Outlook: Back to Business – Loan Yield Recovery as a Key Catalyst, Earnings Forecast Maintained

 

• Entering 4Q26, we expect BBCA’s loan growth momentum to remain solid, supported by continued expansion in Corporate and SME financing, alongside recovering loan yields, which have begun to translate into NIM improvement in 3Q26. Unlike 1H26, when earnings growth was largely supported by Non-Interest Income, the recovery in NII during 3Q26 suggests that BBCA’s core earnings engine is beginning to regain momentum. With 9M26 net profit accounting for 75.7% of our full-year estimate, NHKSI Research maintains its FY26 net profit forecast for BBCA at IDR 59.7T (Unchanged). We believe recovering loan yields, stable CoF, and BBCA’s strong CASA franchise provide a more supportive foundation for sustainable profitability, although risks stemming from sluggish domestic consumption and tight industry liquidity conditions warrant continued monitoring.

🔹 Maintain BUY Recommendation with a Revised Target Price of IDR 7,700 (Upside Potential: +46.0%)

 

• NHKSI Research maintains its BUY recommendation on BBCA, while lowering our Target Price to IDR 7,700/share, implying a FY26F Forward PBV of 3.1x (-1 STD below its three-year historical average). From a fundamental perspective, BBCA continues to demonstrate strong resilience, underpinned by its industry-leading CASA franchise and a return to a more favorable NIM trajectory in 3Q26. Furthermore, healthy asset quality, consistent operating discipline, and accelerating Business Banking loan growth, particularly during 2H26, are expected to support further recovery in NIM and earnings performance. We have lowered our Target Price to reflect heightened risks surrounding the potential reclassification of Indonesia’s equity market to MSCI Standalone Market status, while also factoring in persistent selling pressure amid the ongoing market turmoil. Key downside risks include domestic macroeconomic and political instability, intensifying competition within the banking industry, renewed NIM compression, and a slowdown in loan growth momentum.

 

 

 

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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id