Today’s Outlook:

• US indices followed a mixed session on Wall Street. Both the broad S&P 500 and technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at records on Monday after hitting fresh intraday highs. However, the Dow ended more than 100 points, or about 0.3%, lower. That is despite the blue-chip index at one point topping the closely watched 45,000 level during the day.

• ASIA MARKETS: Asia-Pacific markets are set to open higher on Tuesday, tracking gains on Wall Street after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose to new records. Japan’s Nikkei 225 futures pointed to a stronger open for the market, with the futures contract in Chicago at 38,715 and its counterpart in Osaka at 38,620 compared to the previous close of 38,513.02. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures were at 19,628, higher than the HSI’s last close of 19,550.29. Traders are preparing for a wave of economic reports and comments from Federal Reserve officials that will influence the future direction of interest rates.

– South Korea’s inflation rate climbed in November to 1.5% year on year, higher than October’s inflation reading of 1.3%, and lower than the 1.7% expected by economists polled by Reuters.

• CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: The U.S. dollar index – a measure of its value relative to a basket of its main peers — rose 0.6% to 106.71 after strong U.S. manufacturing data from both the Institute for Supply Management and S&P Global reports, increasing the chances that the Federal Reserve could pause cutting interest rates at a policy meeting later this month. Monday’s rise in the dollar followed the U.S. unit’s first weekly fall posted on Friday since September 2023 as the so-called Trump trade faded. The 10- year Treasury traded around flat on Monday as investors parsed the latest manufacturing data. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury was little changed at 4.197%. On Friday, the 10-year Treasury yield had fallen to its lowest levels since late October. Meanwhile, the 2-year Treasury yield rose roughly 1 basis point to 4.188%.

– The euro fell 1% to USD1.0469 on Monday against a strong U.S. dollar on growing concerns about a possible government collapse in France, which would stall plans to curb a burgeoning budget deficit.

– European markets broadly closed higher Monday, as investors assessed the global economic and interest rate outlook heading into the final trading month of the year. Stoxx 600 rebounded from an earlier to decline to provisionally end the day 0.54% higher, after the index closed out November with its strongest monthly performance since August.

– Germany’s DAX gained 1.4%. However, data releases showed a deterioration in manufacturing sector activity in both the euro zone and the U.K., while the unemployment rate in the European Union remained steady in October.

• COMMODITIES: Oil prices were steady on Monday, as optimism around strong factory activity in China was largely offset by concerns that the U.S. Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates again at its December meeting. Brent crude futures fell 1 cent, or 0.01%, to close at USD71.83 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude closed at USD68.10 a barrel, up 10 cents, or 0.15%. A private sector survey showed China’s factory activity expanded at the fastest pace in five months in November, boosting Chinese business optimism just as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ramps up his trade threats. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, postponed the group’s next meeting to Dec. 5. It will discuss delaying a planned oil output increase scheduled to start in January, OPEC+ sources told Reuters last week.

– Gold prices slipped on Monday, snapping a four-day winning streak, as the U.S. dollar staged a sharp rally and investors braced for pivotal economic data and Federal Reserve insights on the path of interest rates. Spot gold was down 0.6% at USD2,636.54 per ounce, having fallen as much as 1% earlier in the day. U.S. gold futures settled 0.8% lower at USD2,658.50. A firmer dollar driven partly by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s comments that BRICS nations should refrain from trying to replace the dollar is pressuring gold prices, said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals. Trump urged the nine-nation bloc not to back or create alternatives to the dollar, threatening 100% tariffs for defiance.

• JCI continued to spiral down by -65.52/ -0.95% to 7,046 breaking down the dynamic support of MA10 at 7,193. NHKSI RESEARCH thinks JCI still needs to find a solid ground to rebound and start the window dressing journey into the last month of 2024. Investors/traders are advised to shift to BUY ON WEAKNESS for stocks that have been in the Support area early this week. Please keep in mind that foreign appetite has yet to reappear in our market as on Friday they were still consistently net selling IDR 1.60 trillion (RG market). RUPIAH exchange rate is entrenched at 15,851/USD, there are hopes of “strengthening” Rupiah towards 15,600 – 15,500 at the end of this year based on the plan to cut FFR at the FOMC MEETING on 17-18 December.

Company News

• BUMI: Profit Soars 111%, 3Q24 BUMI Deficit USD2.22 Billion
• INKP: Sinarmas Group Issuer (INKP) Offers IDR3.5T Notes
• BRMS: Bakrie Group (BRMS) Said to Seek Loan to Work on Gold Mine in Palu

Domestic & Global News
Prabowo Pegs Free Meal Budget at IDR 10,000, Cak Imin: Still in Simulation Stage
Trump Threatens 100% Tariff for BRICS Countries if They Create Their Own Currencies

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