Wall Street’s major indexes closed lower by an average of less than 0.5% on Tuesday (28/03/23), while Treasury yields and Gold prices advanced, as investors worried that the US Federal Reserve would keep interest rates higher for longer as fears of further banking sector failures faded. Energy stocks rallied on the back of rising global oil prices due to inventory problems. US economic data revealed higher-than-expected Consumer Confidence (Mar.) that came in at 104.2, which was previously expected at 101 (also higher than the previous period 103.4). The US import-export trade deficit, aka Goods Trade Balance (Feb.), expanded slightly (from forecast & previous) to USD 91.63 billion. Markets will closely monitor tomorrow’s Initial Jobless Claims figure, which is expected to rise from 191k to 196k. Meanwhile, the US dollar weakened against a basket of currencies for a second straight day as easing worries about the banking system revived investor appetites for riskier currencies.

On the contrary, JCI managed to gain 51.4 points/+0.77% to 6760.33, supported by the same reason of easing concerns over the global banking sector turmoil; plus investors are still paying attention to the recent 2022 earnings releases which turned out to be quite brilliant, especially from coal sector issuers. As a result, foreign net buy successfully collected IDR 136.2 billion. The Rupiah exchange rate position also strengthened further to IDR15088/USD. Additional positive sentiment came from BI Governor Perry Warjiyo’s comments at the ASEAN seminar in Nusa Dua – Bali, saying that he sees the five ASEAN countries’ economic growth could reach 5.3% in 2022, which is one of the highest in the world. Indonesia itself is expected to reach 4.6%-4.7% and increase to 5.6% by 2024. Looking at the current JCI position, NHKSI RESEARCH estimates that the buying drive will still try to break the important Resistance of 6780-6810 to end this short-term downtrend and try to waltz towards 7000 again. Therefore, Advise: Average Up as Resistance breakout is the wisest to apply.

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