Today’s Outlook:
• Wall Street closed variably flat within a thin range of movement, where S&P500 and NASDAQ still posted gains of 0.02% and 0.1% respectively; while DJIA eroded 0.1%/dropped 42 pts as US Treasury yields rose and the Industrial sector plunged after Boeing’s STOCK shed 2% as their credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s to near “junk” level. On the one hand, the Technology sector managed to maintain positive market sentiment with Tesla shares surging 12% rebounding from a 15-month low this week, after the electric car manufacturer announced it would accelerate the launch of its latest, more affordable EV model by mid-2025. The Technology sector remains in the limelight today, awaiting the arrival of earnings reports from Meta, followed by Microsoft & Alphabet the next day. Chipmakers also reported Q1 performance above expectations as well as laid out spirited Q2 guidance, keeping their share prices in an uptrend. On the other hand, the USD 70 billion 5-year US TREASURY auction pushed bond yields higher and weighed on the stock market. The 10-year US Treasury also rose 5 bps to a yield of 4.646%. Market participants were quite nervous waiting for important economic data in 2 days, namely: Q1 GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March. If these economic growth and inflation benchmarks turn out to be stronger than expected, it will further distance the hopes of a US interest rate cut in the near future.
• ECONOMIC INDICATORS: US Durable Goods Orders (Mar.) came in-line with expectations at 2.6%, signaling a significant increase in demand in the last 4 months for durable products from the US (including vehicles), from the previous growth of only 0.7%.
• COMMODITIES: The US reported weekly crude oil reserves fell by 3.23 million barrels, missing estimates of a 1.8 million barrel addition, as reported by the American Petroleum Institute. This minus position was in line with the US government’s report on crude oil reserve stocks which indeed decreased by 6.368 million barrels, against expectations of an addition of 1.6 million barrels. Nonetheless, global OIL prices continued to depreciate at the close of Wednesday’s trading as the threat of an Israeli-Iranian war eased and global oil shipping flows opened up again, with US WTI down 0.66% to USD 82.81/barrel on the New York Merchantile Exchange; while BRENT eroded 0.45% to USD 88.02/barrel on the London ICE Futures Exchange. Both global oil benchmark prices have recorded gains this year of 15% and 14% respectively. Traders are now refocusing on the supply-demand fundamentals surrounding global oil prices. Goldman Sachs has even predicted a reduction in geopolitical risks in the coming months, projecting that oil prices could fall by USD 5-10/barrel. It is known that US President Joe Biden has signed a foreign aid package that will expand sanctions on Iranian oil, although Biden retains the authority to remove the sanctions for national security reasons; or will not impose strict sanctions that will cause a spike in oil prices during the US election year.
• INDONESIA: Bank Indonesia’s Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) set a 25 bps increase in the benchmark interest rate to 6.25% where the Deposit Rate and Lending Rate were adjusted to: 5.50% & 7.0%. This step was taken in order to stabilize the RUPIAH exchange rate and mitigate the effects of global conflicts. USD/IDR remained unmoved from >16200 per USD, staying above the first Support: in the range of 16192-16140 per USD. JCI closed higher by 63 pts or almost 1% on Wednesday, to 7174.53 securing itself above the Neckline level of DOUBLE TOP (bearish reversal) pattern around 7130-7140. The next challenge to face today is MA20 & MA50 Resistance in the range: 7240-7280 (up to 7300). NHKSI RESEARCH needs to remind investors/traders that VOLATILITY will still be high ahead of the release of important US Inflation & GDP data which could potentially disperse this technical rebound again.
Company News
• HMSP: Decides to Distribute IDR8.06T Dividend
• TBIG: Buyback IDR800 Billion
• AALI: Approve Dividend Distribution of IDR 247/Share
Domestic & Global News
• BI Provides Jumbo Liquidity Incentives of IDR 280 Trillion
• TikTok Will Soon Be Banned in the US if It Doesn’t Sell Its Business
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