Today’s Outlook:

• The broad market index slipped 0.47%, closing at 5,955.25. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.35% to end the day at 19,026.39. Nvidia’s 2.8% fall led the tech-heavy index’s decline, and the Nasdaq this week slipped into negative territory for the year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was an outlier, advancing 159.95 points, or 0.37%, to close at 43,621.16. The market took a leg lower after the most recent consumer confidence survey from the Conference Board came in much weaker than economists’ estimates. This follows a series of disappointing data releases last week, including lackluster manufacturing and retail sales numbers. Cautious forward guidance from Walmart added to worsening sentiment on consumer health and the economy.

• MARKET SENTIMENT : US Crude Oil Inventory numbers will be released. New Home Sales in January is forecasted to decline 677k from 698k in December.

• FIXED INCOME AND CURRENCY : The 10-year Treasury yield fell to its lowest level since December as more signs emerged that the economy may be slowing, leading traders to bid up fixed income prices. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields moved down nearly 10 basis points to 4.294%, and the 2-year Treasury yield slipped more than 6 basis points to 4.098%. One basis point equals 0.01%, and yields and prices move inversely, meaning yields fall when prices rise. The Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence survey came in at 98.3 in February, short of economists’ consensus estimate of 103.0 and down from 105.3 last month. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve said its services index tumbled to -12.9 in February, the lowest since April 2023, from 2.2 in January, while its sales/revenue index fell 15 points to

-12.7, its lowest since May 2020. The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of its currency peers, had inched down by 0.1% to 106.45. The U.S. dollar edged down on Tuesday, as investors gauged fresh concerns over international trade tensions and the prospects for American economic activity.

• EUROPEAN : The pan-European Stoxx 600 closed 0.15% higher, pulling back from earlier highs and continuing the narrow trading range seen this week. European stocks edged higher on Tuesday as corporate earnings and geopolitical developments remained in focus. In a Tuesday address to parliament, he added that the government plans to raise defense spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, noting “the biggest sustained increase in defense spending since the end of the Cold War.” Germany’s DAX index initially continued its upward trend on Tuesday following the result of the German federal election, though slipped in late deals to close 0.13% lower. The conservative Christian Democratic Union and the allied Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) secured the largest share of votes in the election on Sunday, with the alliance’s candidate Friedrich Merz set to take over from Olaf Scholz as chancellor of Europe’s largest economy.

• – The euro had ticked up by 0.2% against the dollar to $1.0492, while sterling rose by 0.2% to $1.2652.

• ASIAN : Asia-Pacific markets traded lower Tuesday after Wall Street fell overnight as tariff threats by U.S. President Donald Trump stoked a risk-off mood, while investors also assessed the rate decision by the Bank of Korea. Japan’s Nikkei 225 led losses in the region, down more than 1% to close at 38,237.79, while the Topix fell 0.43% to close at 2,724.7. Japan’s major trading houses, however, logged sharp gains on Warren Buffett’s plans to increase Berkshire Hathaway’s stake in the conglomerates. South Korea’s Kospi traded 0.57% lower to 2,630.29 while the small-cap Kosdaq fell 0.50% to 769.43. South Korea’s central bank expectedly cut rates to 2.75% from 3%, as it strives to stimulate a slowing economy. The Korean won marginally weakened to 1,430.1 against the dollar. South Korea has been facing political uncertainty, stemming from the impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk Yeol after his short-lived imposition of martial law in December. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.36% in its last hour of trade while mainland China’s CSI 300 dipped 1.11% to 3,925.65 amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. The Hang Seng Tech index pared losses to trade flat. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.68% to close at 8,251.9.

• COMMODITIES : OIL US Crude oil futures climbed slightly from post-settlement lows Tuesday after the American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected decline in weekly domestic crude stockpiles. Crude Oil WTI Futures, the U.S. benchmark, recently traded at $73.17 a barrel following the report after settling down 2.5% at $68.93 a barrel. U.S. crude inventories declined by 640,000 barrels for the week ended Feb. 21, compared with a build of 3.3M barrels reported by the API for the previous week. Economists were expecting a build of 2.3M barrels. Gasoline stockpiles increased by about 537,000 barrels, while distillate inventories — the class of fuels that includes diesel and heating oil — fell by 1.1M barrels. Gold prices fell Tuesday amid profit taking, though downside momentum was kept in check by concerns over higher U.S. trade tariffs and worsening relations between Washington and Beijing. GOLD had risen in overnight trade, coming within spitting distance of a record high amid persistent safe haven demand. This trend was furthered by U.S. President Donald Trump signaling that he still planned to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by next week. This came after Trump over the weekend signed a sweeping executive order aimed at leveling more trade and investment restrictions against China, which could point to further worsening in relations. GOLD fell 1.4% to $2,912.93 an ounce, while gold futures expiring in April fell 1.3% to $2,924.71 an ounce. Spot prices hit a record high of $2,956.37 an ounce last week.

• JCI plummeted 2.41% to 6587. The index is hovering above the solid psychological support of 6500, but it is also still within its major downtrend channel pattern and below the dynamic resistance MA20 @ 6887. NHKSI anticipates JCI to be at a sideways trend below 7000 as a solid resistance and 6531 as base support in the medium-term. On Friday, the regular market suffered another Net Foreign Sell of IDR 683.01 bn in the regular market. As USD/IDR is set to be hovering around IDR 16,400-16,200 for the medium term, we view this to be a stable footing for Indonesia’s currency currently.

Company News

• INCO: Vale Indonesia’s Profit Plummets 78.96% to IDR 931.33 billion in 2024
• MBMA: Merdeka Battery (MBMA) Secures USD 1.4 Billion Loan
• TOBA: TBS Energi Will Hold GMS to Discuss Replacement for Danantara CIO Pandu Sjahrir

Domestic & Global News
Indonesia, Apple agree on terms to lift iPhone 16 ban, Bloomberg News reports
US, Ukraine agree to terms of critical minerals deal

Download full report HERE.