Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Thursday amid rising U.S.–Iran tensions and uncertainty over the outlook for peace. Despite generally positive quarterly earnings from major companies that helped limit losses, the indices remained under pressure. The S&P 500 fell 0.4% to 7,108.97 (after hitting an intraday record of 7,147.78), the NASDAQ dropped 0.9% to 24,438.50, and the Dow Jones declined 0.4% to 49,309.33.
Tensions escalated despite President Donald Trump previously announcing a ceasefire extension. Military activity around the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns, including the U.S. military seizing an Iran-linked oil tanker and Iran’s actions against vessels in the area. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports has become a key flashpoint, even being labeled an “act of war” by Iran. Trump also ordered the U.S. Navy to take firm action against vessels deemed threatening in the Strait of Hormuz.
The ceasefire extension had briefly supported markets on Wednesday, but prospects for further negotiations are now in doubt. Trump stated the extension was made at Pakistan’s request as a mediator and will remain in effect until Iran presents a solid peace proposal.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European markets edged mostly lower. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.1%, Germany’s DAX fell 0.1%, the UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.2%, while France’s CAC 40 gained 0.9%. The CAC 40 was supported by shares of L’Oréal, which jumped more than 8% after posting its fastest quarterly growth in two years.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian markets declined after earlier gains, pressured by geopolitical tensions despite strong performance in the tech sector. Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.1% after hitting a record high, South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 0.5%, while Chinese and Hong Kong indices also weakened.
Chipmaker stocks were supported by strong earnings from SK Hynix, driven by high demand for AI chips. Shares of Samsung Electronics also rose 2.3%. South Korea’s economic data was positive, with Q1 GDP growth exceeding expectations
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices surged sharply due to escalating conflict. Brent rose 3.1% to USD 105.07 per barrel, while WTI climbed 3.11% to USD 95.85 per barrel after earlier stronger gains
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 2.16% at 7,378.6, still facing resistance in the 7,600–7,700 range. The Indonesian market is starting to show resilience to U.S.–Iran geopolitical sentiment, while ongoing IHSG reform initiatives—such as the HCL release—are providing a positive catalyst. However, caution is advised due to ongoing volatility tied to geopolitical tensions.
If the JCI fails to rebound toward the 7,500 level, it may retest support in the 7,200–7,350 range. Concerns are also emerging over IDR depreciation, with the USD/IDR exchange rate recently peaking at around 17,300. Investors are advised to remain cautious heading into the final trading day of the week, anticipating potential end-of-week selling pressure.
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