Today’s Outlook:

• Global stock market indexes moved up in volatile trading on Thursday (21/11/24) as investors digested less-than-flattering revenue projections from AI chipmaker Nvidia; while Bitcoin approached the USD 100,000 milestone. Shares of Nvidia, the world’s most valuable company and a  major contributor to the benchmark S&P500 index’s gains this year, briefly hit a record high earlier in the session before dropping to end up just 0.53% higher. The chipmaker expects Q4 to post its slowest revenue growth in seven quarters. Markets are also closely watching Trump’s pick for Treasury Secretary, who will play a key role in implementing his agenda of tariffs, tax cuts and deregulation. On Wall Street, the three major indices ended in positive territory in a sentiment-less session, led by the Utilities, Financials, Consumer, and Industrials sectors. Communication Services stocks were the hardest hit, driven by losses in Alphabet which ended down around 6%. US prosecutors argued on Wednesday that Alphabet should give up its popular Chrome browser to end Google’s search monopoly. As a result, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.06% to 43,870.35, the S&P 500 rose 0.53%, and the Nasdaq Composite was almost flat at 0.03%. The MSCI global stock index rallied 0.38% to 851.05 after losing ground earlier in the session. European stocks gained 0.41%, driven by a rally in Energy and Technology stocks.

• CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: BITCOIN surges and approaches the USD 100,000 milestone. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has gained more than 40% since Donald Trump won the November 5 US election, driven by expectations that his administration will be cryptocurrency-friendly. Bitcoin rose 3.75% to USD 98,005.00. Ethereum rose 8.77% to a price of USD 3,350.80.

– US DOLLAR rose in volatile trade as investors assessed the decline in weekly Initial Jobless Claims (actual: 213k vs consensus: 220k, vs previous: 219k) as indicating labor market strength, and comments from 2 Federal Reserve governors regarding the direction of interest rates. The housing market also appeared to be in good health with Existing Home Sales (Oct) data rising above estimates. On the other hand, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Nov) fell below expectations, signaling that one aspect of manufacturing growth that is considered important in the US is still stumbling. Perhaps later tonight’s US PMI data from S&P Global will give more direction to US economic growth, as well as how the Univ. of Michigan views Inflation expectations. Of Michigan on Inflation & Consumer expectations going forward.

– Against the Japanese YEN, the Dollar weakened 0.62% to 154.45 but strengthened 0.29% to 0.887 against the Swiss FRANC. The DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength over a basket of other major world currencies including the Yen and Euro, rose 0.37% at 107, reaching a 13-month high. As for the Euro, it fell 0.41% to USD 1.0479.

• COMMODITIES: OIL prices closed up around 2% after RUSSIA & UKRAINE fired missiles at each other, raising concerns over crude oil supplies. BRENT crude oil rose 1.95% to USD 74.23/barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (US WTI) crude oil rose 2% to USD 70.10.

– Spot GOLD prices rose, heading for a fourth consecutive session of gains after hitting a more than week high. Spot gold prices rose 0.8% to USD 2,671.28 per ounce. US gold futures prices closed 0.9% higher at USD 2,674.90.

• ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: JAPAN this morning released the National Core CPI (Oct) figure at 2.3% yoy, 0.1% above forecast but still lower than the previous month. Later in the morning, Japan will soon release its Services PMI (Nov) figures. This economic indicator was released a day after BANK OF JAPAN Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank will seriously take into account the Yen’s impact on economic growth and prices, a statement that markets took as an indication that the BOJ will raise interest rates soon. As is known, the ultra-low-yielding Yen has been one of the world’s worst performing currencies against the Dollar this year, putting an additional burden on import prices. The Dollar has gained 10% against the Yen since the Fed cut interest rates in September. There is speculation that the Yen has been heavily sold in the largest short position in 4 months preparing for a rebound as the BOJ is expected to take more aggressive steps.

– A number of PMI reports today dominate the attention of global investors, including from the UK (in addition to waiting for Retail Sales (Oct) reporting which is expected to be somewhat weaker than the previous month), GERMANY (including their 3Q GDP report), as well as the EUROZONE.

• INDONESIA: Indonesia’s Balance of Payments (BOP) performance in Q3 recorded a surplus of USD 5.9 billion, from a deficit of USD 0.6 billion in Q2/2024. The balance of payments surplus was supported by the increasing capital & financial account surplus. Cadev position increased from USD 140.2 billion at the end of June 2024 to USD 149.9 at the end of Sept. Current account balance recorded a decline in deficit: in Q3/2024, Current Account posted a deficit of USD 2.2 billion (0.6% of GDP); lower than Q2 deficit of USD 3.2 billion (0.9% of GDP). The supporting factors are the growth of non-oil and gas exports along with the increase in commodity prices, as well as the increase in exports in line with the improvement in domestic economic activity.

• JCI looks like it needs stronger motivation to break the first resistance: MA10 at 7220 level, which could open the way to the next Resistance/ Target: 7360-7370. But in the meantime it seems a bit difficult to happen as foreign net sell is still pouring out, yesterday they were recorded dumping another IDR 1.09 trillion into the market, bringing the total YTD Foreign Net Sell position to IDR 18.51 trillion; especially when the RUPIAH is currently approaching the 16,000 / USD level (as predicted towards the end of the year). NHKSI RESEARCH still suggest more WAIT & SEE at the end of this week as our market is losing sentiment, while preparing for the possibility that JCI still needs to test Support in the 7015- 6950 area.

Company News

• SMRA: Soaring 42.98%, SMRA Earned IDR 933.7 Billion in 3Q24
• DSSA: Dian Swastatika (DSSA) Releases IDR 3.5T Notes, Interest 6.5-8.62 Percent
• LPCK: Lippo Cikarang Obtained Approval to Rights Issue 3 Billion New Shares

Domestic & Global News
Prabowo’s Ways to Boost State Revenue: Nickel, Tin, and Palm Oil to Enter Simbara
Sweden’s Northvolt Files for Bankruptcy, in Blow to Europe’s EV Ambitions

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