Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Tuesday, pressured by the lack of breakthroughs in U.S.-Iran negotiations and the renewed global bond sell-off. Technology stocks also weakened ahead of NVIDIA’s earnings report, although they managed to trim part of their losses by the end of the session. The S&P 500 fell 0.6% to 7,355.45 points, the NASDAQ Composite declined 0.8% to 25,870.71 points, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.7% to 49,364.31 points.
Developments in the Middle East conflict remained the market’s main focus after President Donald Trump said he had canceled plans for a new attack on Iran following requests from three Gulf state leaders. Trump stated that serious negotiations were underway and expressed optimism that a peace agreement could be reached.
Iranian state media reported that Tehran had sent a peace proposal to the U.S. covering a ceasefire in multiple regions, the lifting of sanctions, the removal of the blockade on Iranian ports, and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from areas near Iran. Reuters also reported that Pakistan had acted as an intermediary in delivering the proposal.
In the bond market, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.667%, its highest level since January 2025, while the 30-year yield climbed to 5.180%, the highest since 2007. Rising yields typically put greater pressure on technology stocks because their valuations rely heavily on future earnings expectations.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets were mixed on Tuesday amid hopes that a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran could still be achieved. The pan-European Stoxx 600 rose 0.2%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, the UK’s FTSE 100 edged up 0.1%, while France’s CAC 40 slipped 0.1%.
Markets remained overshadowed by concerns that surging energy prices caused by war could trigger global inflation and keep interest rates higher for longer. Nevertheless, equity market sentiment continued to be supported by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI). Investor focus is now on NVIDIA’s earnings report this week, which is expected to be a key test for the sustainability of the global AI investment rally.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets were mixed on Tuesday, with technology stocks following overnight weakness on Wall Street. Investors also monitored stronger-thanexpected Japanese economic growth data and developments in the Middle East conflict.
Japan’s economy expanded 2.1% annualized in the first quarter, above expectations of 1.7%, driven by stronger domestic consumption and external demand. Capital expenditure rose 0.3% QoQ, while the GDP price index increased 3.4%, signaling persistent inflation pressures. However, analysts expect Japan’s economic growth to slow in the coming quarters. The Nikkei 225 fell 0.4%, while TOPIX gained 0.5%.
In China, the CSI 300 index declined 0.6%, while the Shanghai Composite traded flat. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also remained relatively unchanged. Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI fell 3% after plunging as much as 5% earlier in the session. Samsung Electronics shares dropped more than 5% after negotiations between the company and its labor union again reached a deadlock. Investors are concerned that a planned strike later this week could disrupt semiconductor production. South Korean courts were also reported to have warned the labor union of potential fines if it violated court orders related to industrial action.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices fell around 1% on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said he had postponed plans for an attack on Iran to allow room for negotiations to end the war. On Monday, Trump said via social media that the military strike previously scheduled for Tuesday had been delayed while negotiations with Iran continued. He also stressed that the U.S. was prepared to resume attacks if a deal could not be reached.
Brent crude for July delivery fell USD1.28 or 1.14% to USD110.82 per barrel at 12:49 p.m. Meanwhile, the U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) June contract, which expires on Tuesday, rose slightly by 1 cent to USD108.67 per barrel. The more actively traded July WTI contract declined 58 cents or 0.56% to USD103.80 per barrel.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed down 3.46% at 6,370, still pressured by selling in conglomerate-related stocks and foreign outflows amid market anticipation over the May 2026 MSCI rebalancing, particularly in DSSA, BREN, TPIA, and AMMN, which continued to face heavy selling pressure.
In addition, investors remain concerned about uncertainty surrounding plans to establish an institution similar to the BPP (Commodity Buffer and Marketing Agency), along with issues related to underinvoicing in commodities, which have pressured most commodity stocks, including CPO, coal, tin, and nickel-related names.
Amid market pressure, several blue-chip stocks such as TLKM, viewed as a defensive stock, still managed to strengthen amid concerns over Rupiah weakness against the U.S. dollar. USD/IDR sentiment also remains a major market concern. If selling pressure continues, the IDX Composite could test the 6,000 level as the last psychological support before the gap area around 6,100. In the short term, market participants may focus on stocks that are still able to hold support levels with solid fundamentals and attractive valuations.
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