Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed significantly higher on Friday, while oil prices fell sharply, driven by positive sentiment from easing tensions in the Middle East and the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The benchmark S&P 500 rose 1.2% to 7,125.36, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% to 24,468.48, and the Dow Jones increased 1.8% to 49,447.92. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit new record highs, with the S&P extending a three-week rally of 11.9%. Optimism over a potential end to the conflict fueled the rally, marking a strong rebound for Wall Street after its decline in March בעקבות the Middle East conflict.
Wall Street posted a strong week, with all three major indexes recording solid gains—Nasdaq about +6.8%, S&P 500 +4.5%, and Dow +3%—marking their best weekly performance in recent months.
However, sentiment turned cautious after Iran stated it would not participate in a second round of negotiations before the temporary ceasefire expires. Tensions escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump said American forces had fired upon and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, and warned of further attacks if no agreement is reached.
The Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes— was reportedly closed again, raising concerns over supply disruptions. Oil prices surged in Asian trading on Monday amid rising risks of tighter global supply and potential inflation.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks jumped on Friday after Iran stated that the Strait of Hormuz had been temporarily reopened for commercial shipping. The Stoxx 600 rose 1.5%, Germany’s DAX +2.3%, France’s CAC 40 +2%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 +0.7%.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks edged lower on Friday due to profit-taking, although they remained on track for weekly gains supported by optimism over renewed U.S.-Iran peace talks and positive cues from Wall Street.
Despite the daily dip, Asian markets still recorded weekly gains: Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.8% but was set to rise 3.5% for the week (after hitting a record high), TOPIX declined 1.1%, and South Korea’s KOSPI slipped 0.3% but was on track for a 6% weekly gain. The rally was led by technology stocks, following Wall Street’s surge driven by optimism around AI-led earnings growth. Shares of SK Hynix jumped more than 10% over the week, while strong results from TSMC—with quarterly profit rising about 58%—boosted confidence in the semiconductorsector.
China’s Shanghai Composite and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng were both set for around 1.5% weekly gains, despite modest declines on Friday. Data showed China’s economy grew 5.0% year-on-year in Q1, beating expectations and accelerating from 4.5% previously.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices rebounded more than 6% on Monday after dropping over 9% on Friday. The surge was driven by the renewed closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid mutual accusations of ceasefire violations between the U.S. and Iran. Brent rose to USD 96.49/barrel (+6.76%), while WTI climbed to USD 90.38/barrel (+7.79%).
The U.S. seized an Iranian vessel accused of breaching its blockade, while Iran refused to continue peace negotiations. Both countries imposed blockades, including in the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled about 20% of global oil supply.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed flat at +0.17% in the green at 7,634. The Indonesian market appears increasingly resilient to U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions. Meanwhile, the IHSG reform agenda—highlighted by the introduction of the High Concentration List (HCL)—has provided fresh optimism.
However, caution is still warranted due to potential volatility driven by ongoing geopolitical risks. The next key catalyst is the MSCI inclusion and rebalancing in May 2026, with market attention focused on stocks like BREN and DSSA that are included in the HCL. Market flows remain concentrated in conglomerate stocks, with rotation among these names presenting potential trading opportunities.
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