Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed slightly higher on Thursday, driven by hopes for a U.S.– Iran peace deal as well as a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices again recorded highs (for the first time since late January), with the S&P rising 0.2% to 7,039.37 and the Nasdaq gaining 0.4% to 24,102.70. The Dow Jones also rose 0.2% to 48,578.60. The Nasdaq recorded gains for 12 consecutive sessions, the longest since 2009.
Investor sentiment improved after Israel agreed to a temporary ceasefire with Lebanon, and U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that talks with Iran could resume this weekend. The roughly 10-day ceasefire is seen as an initial step toward broader peace negotiations.
Despite the positive tone, gains were limited as markets still face mixed signals. Oil prices remain elevated due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Economic data showed U.S. jobless claims fell more than expected, indicating a still-strong labor market and supporting equities.
Trump stated that Iran is getting closer to a deal: the stock market is strengthening, oil prices are declining, and the chances of a deal without nuclear weapons are increasing. He also emphasized that Iran is now more open compared to two months ago.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks were mixed on Thursday amid hopes that the Iran conflict will soon ease. The Stoxx 600 fell 0.1%, France’s CAC 40 dropped 0.1%, the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.3%, and Germany’s DAX climbed 0.4%.
The Stoxx 600 has started to recover most of the losses since the Iran conflict began in late February. However, European stocks still lag behind Wall Street. One reason is Europe’s reliance on gas imports from the Middle East affected by attacks, while the U.S., as a net energy exporter, is seen as more resilient to the war’s impact.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks extended strong gains on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei hitting a record high, following Wall Street’s rally and stronger-than-expected economic data from China.
The Nikkei 225 rose 2.6% to an all-time high of 59,624, while TOPIX gained 1.3%. Gains were led by technology and chip stocks, driven by optimism over AI demand. South Korea’s KOSPI also rose more than 2%, nearing its record high this year. Hopes for progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks helped stabilize global sentiment, easing concerns over energy supply and inflation.
Sentiment was also supported by China’s economic data. The economy grew 5.0% (yoy) in Q1, exceeding expectations of 4.8% and improving from 4.5% previously. March industrial production rose 5.7% (above the 5.4% estimate), while retail sales increased only 1.7% (below the 1.9% estimate), indicating still-weak domestic demand. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%, CSI 300 gained 0.7%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose more than 1%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices fell sharply in early Asian trading on Friday after the U.S. announced a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, boosting hopes for peace in the Middle East.
Oil is also heading for a second consecutive weekly decline, driven by optimism over U.S.–Iran peace talks, especially after Donald Trump signaled that a long-term agreement is getting closer. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 1.4% to USD 89.88 per barrel and is down more than 3% on a weekly basis.
The ceasefire has held so far with no new attacks for nearly a week and is scheduled to end on April 21, with a possibility of extension. Pressure on oil prices also comes from expectations of further U.S.–Iran negotiations, as well as weaker global demand forecasts from OPEC and International Energy Agency.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed flat at -0.03% in the red zone at 7,621.4, as some market participants appeared to take profits. The Indonesian market is starting to become more resilient to U.S.–Iran geopolitical sentiment, while the JCI reform agenda— starting with the release of the HCL—has provided positive momentumfor the market.
The next key agenda is the continuation of MSCI inclusion and rebalancing in May 2026, with market attention focused on stocks such as Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), which are included in the High Concentration List (HCL). Market flows still appear concentrated in conglomerate stocks, with rotation among them presenting trading opportunities. As today marks the last trading day of the week, more conservative investors may consider taking profit or reducing positions to mitigate geopolitical risks.
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