The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones ended with gains of 0.3% and 0.14% respectively, after the release of manufacturing activity data in New York further confirmed concerns about a slowing US economy that could help bring down the inflation amid ongoing debt ceiling negotiations. The NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (May), tumbled to a reading of -31.8, against expectations of -3.75. Analysts/economists expect the economy to be weak enough to bring down inflation but not so weak that it causes a recession. This week will be filled with other economic data reports, such as Retail Sales, weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and housing sector data. Macroeconomic data that begin to show an economic slowdown has heightened expectations for when the Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hike, although some Fed officials indicated they expect interest rates to stay high while monitoring the level of Inflation consistently declining; in contrast to market expectations for a rate cut before the end of the year. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday, as investors will be monitoring his comments for clues on the future direction of interest rate policy.
A recessionary atmosphere also began to prevail in the Eurozone when they reported Industrial Production (Mar) data of -4.1% on a monthly basis, a bigger drop than the -2.5% forecast. It seems that Indonesia was the only country to report a green report card yesterday as it managed to post a Trade Balance surplus for the 36th consecutive month, at USD 3.94 billion, higher than expectations of USD 3.38 billion. Indonesia also reported 1Q23 external debt levels remained under control at USD 402.8 billion. NHKSI Research sees today JCI has a technical rebound opportunity, as yesterday closed with a long-leg Hammer (bullish) reversal candle. Watch out for Resistance 6765-6810 as a gateway to a smoother upward trend.
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