Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed mixed on Wednesday as investors weighed optimism over potential new U.S.–Iran negotiations alongside a series of corporate earnings reports. The S&P 500 briefly hit a new intraday record and closed at an all-time high for the first time since late January, marking a strong rebound after the March decline caused by the Middle East conflict.
The S&P 500 rose 0.8% to 7,022.81. The NASDAQ gained 1.6% to 24,016.02, while the Dow Jones fell 0.2% to 48,463.72.
Despite volatility from the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical shipping routes—U.S. stocks continued to trend higher. The Nasdaq has risen 14% over the past 10 sessions, its longest winning streak since 2021. Sentiment was also supported by earnings season and comments from Wall Street banks noting strong U.S. consumer spending and borrowing, signaling resilience despite energy shock risks from the Iran conflict.
Donald Trump said the war with Iran could end soon, although the U.S. military is still enforcing a naval blockade restricting Iranian shipping. In a Sky News interview, he said a permanent ceasefire could be reached before King Charles’ visit this month and described Iran as “pretty badly beaten.”
Earlier, Trump told Fox News the conflict—triggered by joint U.S.–Israel strikes in late February—was “close to over.” The New York Post reported that temporary U.S.–Iran ceasefire talks may resume within the next two daysfollowing initial talks in Pakistan.
Hopes of de-escalation also rose after Israel and Lebanon held their first direct talks in decades in Washington, although Israeli strikes on Hezbollah-linked targets in Lebanon continue, potentially threatening the ceasefire with Iran. Israel also denied Iran’s claim that Lebanon wasincluded in the ceasefire deal.
Trump also said on social media that China has agreed not to send weapons to Iran. He claimed the opening of the Strait of Hormuz would be “permanent” and done for China and the world, and said Chinese President Xi Jinping would welcome him warmly during his visit.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks moved mixed on Wednesday as investors monitored U.S. signals about efforts to end the war with Iran soon.
The Stoxx 600 fell 0.4%, Germany’s DAX rose 0.2%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 dropped 0.5%. France’s CAC 40 declined 0.6%, weighed down by a sharp fall in Hermès shares due to slowing sales growth amid weaker demand from the Iran conflict. Kering also fell after weaker Gucci sales. Combined with softer results from LVMH, this pressured expectationsfor a European luxury recovery.
On the other hand, sentiment was supported by ASML, Europe’s largest chip equipment maker, which raised its annual sales outlook amid the AI boom. Demand for ASML productsis rising as tech companies race to expand AI capacity.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks extended gains on Wednesday, led by technology shares tracking strong Wall Street performance, while cautious optimism over potential U.S.– Iran diplomatic progress supported risk sentiment.
Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose about 1% near record levels, while the TOPIX gained 0.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI outperformed, jumping over 3% and approaching record highs. Gains were driven by memory chipmakers on expectations of sustained AI demand. SK Hynix hit a new record high, and Samsung Electronics also rose.
Elsewhere, China’s Shanghai Composite rose 0.4%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng climbed more than 1%.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices edged lower in Asian trade on Thursday as markets focused on the possibility of renewed U.S.–Iran peace talks before the ceasefire expires next week. Caution ahead of upcoming China economic data also weighed on sentiment.
WTI crude fell 0.4% to USD 90.90 per barrel. Oil prices have been under pressure this week on expectations of renewed U.S.–Iran negotiations, although previous talks failed to reach a breakthrough. U.S. President Donald Trump said talks could happen within days and that the war is nearing an end.
However, the U.S. has also imposed a full naval blockade on Iran, potentially complicating negotiations. Reports suggest some ships and tankers continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran is reportedly considering allowing safe passage via the Omaniside as part of a peace deal.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed lower by 0.68% at 7,623.6 as some investors took profits. The Indonesian market appears increasingly resilient to U.S.–Iran geopolitical sentiment, while ongoing JCI reforms—starting with the High Concentration List (HCL)—are providing positive support.
The next key focus is MSCI inclusion and rebalancing in May 2026, particularly regarding Barito Renewables Energy (BREN) and Dian Swastatika Sentosa (DSSA), which are included in the HCL. Market flows remain concentrated in conglomerate stocks, with rotation among them continuing as a trading opportunity.
Download full report HERE.
