Today’s Outlook:
• Wall Street was mixed and little changed on Tuesday, though gains were kept in check after FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL said the U.S. central bank was in no rush to cut interest rates amid growing concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariff policies could stoke inflation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 123 points, or 0.3%, the S&P 500 gained 0.1%, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.4%. Gains in Coca-Cola and Apple, which were in the green, offset losses in Tesla.
• MARKET SENTIMENT : Powell told the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday on Capitol Hill that the central bank is comfortable enough with its current, much looser-than-previous policy stance, amid a strong U.S. economy, that it sees no need to rush to cut interest rates. U.S. TREASURY YIELDS rose following the remarks as bets on a rate cut eased, with the Fed now widely expected to leave rates unchanged at its March meeting, according to Investing.com’s Fed Watch survey. Powell will testify before Congress on Wednesday, where he is expected to face questions about the impact of Trump’s policies on the economy and inflation. The remarks come on the heels of a fresh inflation report that is expected to show headline inflation cooling but core inflation rising. In December, U.S. CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, above the central bank’s 2% target level.
• – PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP followed through on his threat Monday night, signing an executive order imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, while also stating that there would be no exemptions to the duties. Major steel exporters such as Canada, Mexico and Brazil were subject to several quota-based tariff exemptions, which will now be lifted. Trump has warned that tariffs on metals could go higher, and that he is considering tariffs on cars, chips and pharmaceuticals. The president also plans to raise tariffs on U.S. imports to match foreign duties on U.S. goods, a so-called reciprocal tariff, potentially escalating international trade tensions.
• – Q4/2024 earnings season has begun, with more than half of the S&P 500 companies projected to post year-ago revenue growth of 14.8%, up from estimates of below 10% at the start of 2025. On the earnings front, Coca-Cola rose nearly 5% after the soft drink giant beat fourthquarter earnings and revenue estimates, helped by strong demand for soda and juice and higher prices. Apple rose 2.2% after The Information reported it was partnering with Alibaba to develop and roll out artificial intelligence features for iPhone users in China. Tesla, meanwhile, tumbled 6.3% a day after Reuters and others reported a consortium led by CEO Elon Musk offered $97 billion to buy the nonprofit that controls artificial intelligence pioneer OpenAI.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices rose to a two-week high on Tuesday, supported by concerns that US sanctions could disrupt Russian and Iranian oil supplies, as well as rising tensions in the Middle East; masking the reality that a tariff war would increase inflation and hamper global economic growth. Brent crude futures rose $1.13, or 1.5%, to $77.00 a barrel; while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained $1.00, or 1.4%, to $73.32. That brought both benchmarks up for a third day and to their highest closes since January 28. The US imposed sanctions targeting tankers, producers and insurers that will significantly disrupt Russian oil shipments to major importers China and India. Crude prices were also supported by US sanctions on Iran’s oil shipping network to China after US President Donald Trump reimposed “maximum pressure” on Iranian oil exports last week. Offsetting the potential supply shortage, API just released a build in US crude oil inventories that jumped well above estimates. The weekly data said that 9 million barrels were collected in the last week, compared to estimates of 2.8 million barrels.
• – MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT DEVELOPMENTS: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that if Hamas does not release Israeli hostages by Saturday afternoon, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza will be over. The comments followed Trump’s demand Monday that Hamas release all hostages by Saturday or he would propose scrapping the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and allowing chaos to ensue. Trump also said he might withhold aid to Jordan and Egypt if they do not accept Palestinian refugees relocated from Gaza. Trump is due to meet with Jordan’s King Abdullah on Tuesday.
• INDONESIA: reported that Motorcycle & Car Sales in January plunged deeper than in December. The sluggish national automotive sales emerged amidst the increasingly evolving Chinese-branded electric car variants that are able to reach lower prices. Today, Retail Sales (Dec) figures will be monitored to further monitor people’s purchasing power.
• IHSG plunged further to the level of 6532, dropping 1.75% / 116 pts to the lowest level in almost 3 years, precisely touching the Low point in May 2022. Foreign Net Sell is still hitting, there was a net sale of IDR 469.5 billion (all market). NHKSI RESEARCH assesses that there is a potential for a technical rebound in sight, considering that the RSI indicator has shouted Oversold; but please remember that if there is no positive catalyst that can lift the market, then a strong downtrend will rule. Although the price position that is already crowded at the bottom is tempting for a Buy on Weakness, please be aware that the current stock market status is still highly speculative, therefore please exercise wisest money-management if you have to open a buy position.
Company News
• EMTK & SCMA: Emtek Again Buys Up 102.6 Million SCMA Shares
• LPKR: Achieving IDR 6.01 Trillion in Pre-Sales, a Positive Signal for the Property Market?
• DEWA: Bakrie Group Converts AMM Debt of IDR 296.61 Billion, See the Details
Domestic & Global News
BPI Danantara Management Can Escape Legal Responsibility Despite Losses
Trump’s Steel Tariffs Anger Mexico, EU
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