Today’s Outlook:
• Stocks sank during Monday’s session, extending losses after the S&P 500 posted three consecutive negative weeks. The Nasdaq Composite saw its worst day since September 2022. Meanwhile, the 30-stock Dow, which lost nearly 900 points, closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time since Nov. 1, 2023. The moves lower come as anxiety over an impending recession rose on Wall Street. When asked about the possibility of a recession, President Donald Trump said during a Fox News interview that aired on Sunday that the economy was going through “a period of transition.” The remarks arrived after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Friday that there could be a “detox period” for the economy as the Trump administration slashes federal spending.
• MARKET SENTIMENT : In the US, JOLTS Job Opening for January will be released. For Indonesia, February Car Sales and January Retail Sales will be posted
• FIXED INCOME AND CURRENCY : U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Monday with investors seeking safety as fears of an economic slowdown grew. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell 9 basis points to 4.226%. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped nearly 10 basis points to 3.906%. One basis point is equal to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
• EUROPE : The pan-European Stoxx 600 lost 1.4%. European markets ended lower on Monday amid global uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. Tech shares fell across the region after their U.S. counterparts slid amid tariff concerns, while autos ended the day up 1.24% boosted by Porsche and Stellantis. Germany’s DAX slumped 1.8% as the country’s provisional export data showed a decline. France’s CAC 40 and the FTSE 100 were meanwhile both down 0.9%.
– The euro was 0.03% higher against the dollar at $1.083350 but hovered near its four-month high as the markets awaited details on the likely boost to European spending. The single currency notched its best week in 16 years last week. European Union finance ministers will meet on Monday to explore funding options for defence. European countries have rushed to boost spending and maintain support for Ukraine after Trump froze U.S. military aid to Kyiv and raised doubts about Washington’s commitment to European allies.
• ASIA : Asia-Pacific markets slid on Tuesday, tracking losses in the U.S. following anxiety over tariff policy and a potential recession in the world’s largest economy. Japanese markets led losses in the region, with the benchmark Nikkei 225 falling over 2% shortly after the open, while the broader Topix index fell 1.57%. The country’s revised GDP for the fourth quarter came in at 2.2% on an annualized basis, below economists’ expectations and the previous estimate of 2.8% growth. South Korea’s Kospi started the day 1.78% lower, while the small-cap Kosdaq plunged 2.11%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell around 1.28% in early trade, reversing course from gains in the previous session.
– The dollar weakened 0.76% to 146.91 against the Japanese yen after trading as low as 146.625 on the session, its lowest since early October last year. The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its policy review on March 18-19, though officials have repeatedly cited the need to gauge the sustainability of wage growth after the central bank’s January rate hike. China’s yuan slipped on Monday after data over the weekend showed the consumer price index in February fell at the sharpest pace in 13 months.
• COMMODITY : OIL prices were down 1% on Monday as uncertainty about U.S. tariffs and rising output from OPEC+ producers pressured the market, although potential sanctions on Iranian crude exports limited losses. Brent crude was down 71 cents, or 1%, at $69.65 a barrel by 1 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude lost 65 cents to $66.39, also shedding 1%. Last week marked WTI’s seventh consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since November 2023, while Brent fell for a third consecutive week. U.S. President Donald Trump’s protectionist policies have roiled markets across the world, with Trump imposing and then delaying tariffs on its biggest oil suppliers Canada and Mexico while also raising duties on Chinese goods. China and Canada have responded with tariffs of their own. GOLD prices dipped on Monday as profit-taking countered support from safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, while focus was also on the U.S. inflation print. Spot gold eased 0.2% to $2,904.50 an ounce after rising 2% in the previous week. U.S. gold futures fell 0.1% to $2,910.90.
• JCI corrected 0.57% to 6598 and formed a hammer candle pattern, as it could not breakout of dynamic resistance MA20(Yellow) @ 6636. NHKSI Research anticipates JCI to be at a sideways trend below 6500 as a solid resistance and 6000 as the next base support after breaking out of its previous solid support at 6393. Although during last 3 days JCI made a great bounce back after touched 6300 support area and several big banks also gained some net foreign buy/inflow, please mind the correction if JCI can’t break and close above 6650 resistance today.
Company News
• LPPF: Lippo Group to Share 2024 Dividend of IDR 300 per Sheet
• CMRY: Cisarua Mountain Dairy (Cimory) Aims to Increase Revenue by 15% in 2025
• PGEO: Share Price Below IPO, Pertamina Geothermal (PGEO) Assesses Buyback Option
Domestic & Global News
Prabowo Orders THR for Private, SOEs & Regional-Owned Enterprises Workers to be Disbursed 7 Days before Eid 2025
Youth Cash Assistance in Thailand, 2.7 Million Gen Z People Receive IDR 4.8 Million
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