Today’s Outlook:
• Wall Street closed higher on Monday (10/02/25), on the back of an Nvidia-led rally in the Technology sector and the S&P 500 Materials index rose 0.5%, supported by steel companies such as Nucor up 5.6%, and Steel Dynamics up 4.9%. The sector lifted as the market reacted to President Donald Trump’s tariff plans ahead of key economic data releases and events later this week including a statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 166 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 index gained 0.7%, and the NASDAQ Composite jumped 1%. The MSCI global stock index rose 4.16 points, or 0.48%, to 873.60, heading for its fourth gain in the past five sessions. THE US DOLLAR rallied for a third straight session on Monday after US President Donald Trump warned of more tariffs, including on steel and aluminum, while global stock indexes advanced, shrugging off concerns about another round of duties. Trump is expected to announce 25% tariffs on Monday or Tuesday on all US steel and aluminum imports, and soon unveil other reciprocal tariffs. China’s retaliatory tariffs on some US exports took effect on Monday, with no sign of progress towards a new trade arrangement between Beijing and Washington.
• MARKET SENTIMENT: Some analysts fear tariffs could reignite US inflationary pressures, removing flexibility from the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, a factor that has also helped support the US Dollar since Trump’s re-election. Markets largely expect the Federal Reserve to keep rates on hold at its March meeting, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut remaining low at just under 50% at least through June, according to the CME FedWatch Tool survey. FED CHAIRMAN JEROME POWELL will speak on Tuesday to elaborate semi-annual monetary policy before the Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs Committee. His comments on rates and inflation are likely to be closely monitored.
• CURRENCY & FIXED INCOME: The DOLLAR INDEX (DXY), which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of currencies, gained 0.2% to 108.30, with the EURO down 0.18% at $1.0308. Against the Japanese YEN, the Dollar strengthened 0.34% to 151.91 while the POUNDSTERLING slipped 0.37% to $1.2363. The Canadian Dollar fell 0.1% to C$1.43/USD and the Mexican Peso lost 0.2% against the USD at 20.607 as the US Dollar retreated from its previous high.
– The benchmark 10-year US TREASURY YIELD rose 1.4 basis points to 4.501% as investors await a new wave of supply and key economic data such as the latest US CPI reading. ASIA & EUROPE MARKETS: JAPAN Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba expressed optimism on Sunday that his country could avoid higher US tariffs and a retaliatory tariff war. The STOXX 600 index across continental Europe rose 0.58% to close at a record high of 545.92, led by a 1.5% gain in the Oil and Gas sector. Shares of several European steel producers returned to the downtrend, including Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, which closed down 0.6%; and Germany’s Salzgitter, which closed flat.
• COMMODITIES: OIL prices bounced back despite lingering concerns over a potential global trade war. US WTI crude oil closed up 1.86% to $72.32 per barrel and BRENT appreciated to $75.87 per barrel, up 1.62%.
• INDONESIA : Today we will wait for Consumer Confidence (Jan) data with previous month comparison at 127.7. JCI fell 94.43 pts / -1.4% to 6648.14, after corrected 2% below 6600 level. The sharp downtrend has started to enter the lowest level in the last 1.5 years in the range of 6600-6550. Although the RSI seems positive divergence and should signal limited downside potential (if not a technical rebound lurking), it was defeated by the domestic market sentiment that is not conducive to the entry of foreign investment into Indonesia. Especially due to the recent news and related issues that do not emphasize the implementation of GCG (good corporate governance) in the legal system and investment climate in Indonesia. It is no wonder that foreigners are consistently fleeing from the equity market, YTD the Foreign Net Sell position has reached almost IDR 8 trillion; while the Rupiah exchange rate position is stagnant in the range of 16300s / USD. FY24 earnings season is also in the spotlight for market players at the moment, while expecting good numbers to emerge that could boost market sentiment. NHKSI RESEARCH believes that there is no other choice but to maintain a WAIT & SEE stance for longer while waiting for more positive catalysts, before deciding to Buy On Weakness stocks that have depreciated considerably.
Company News
• WIKA: Pefindo Slips WIKA’s Rating to idCCC, Here’s Why
• BREN: Prajogo Issuer Reveals 15.5 MW Salak Geothermal Capacity Increase
• ISAT: Indosat Recorded Profit and Revenue to Rise Slightly Throughout 2024
Domestic & Global News
Komdigi Prioritizes 1.4 GHz Frequency Auction to Expand Cheap Internet Access
Trade War Heats Up, EU Ready to Hit Back at Trump’s Steel and Aluminum Import Tariffs
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