Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks strengthened on Monday, starting the new month on a positive note after President Donald Trump delayed plans for a major attack on Iran and pushed for negotiations, which sent oil prices lower. The S&P 500 rose 1.5% to 7,601.41, the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.1% to 25,913.90, and the Dow Jones gained 1.3% to 53,178.41, marking its first record closing high since July 6.
The AI sector and oil price movements are expected to remain key market focuses in August. After a strong rally earlier this year, AI stocks experienced a sharp correction in July due to concerns over elevated valuations, slower returns from AI spending, and rising competition from China. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunged 20.6% in July, marking its worst monthly decline since October 2008.
Toward the end of July, AI sentiment improved following strong earnings reports from Microsoft and Amazon. Microsoft’s market capitalization surged by around USD450 billion in a single day, while Amazon gained more than 15% and surpassed USD3 trillion in market capitalization for the first time.
Beyond the technology sector, the Middle East conflict remained a key focus after the U.S.-Iran ceasefire collapsed and triggered tit-for-tat attacks around the Strait of Hormuz. The widening conflict also pushed oil prices up by more than 20%.
This week, investors will focus on U.S. labor market data, including job openings, private employment data, layoffs, and the July nonfarm payrolls report.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks advanced on Monday, driven by a sharp decline in global oil prices that offset weaker Eurozone economic indicators. The STOXX 600 index rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX gained 1.6%, France’s CAC 40 increased 1.2%, Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 1.3%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 0.1%.
Preliminary data showed Eurozone manufacturing activity rose to its highest level in nearly 4.5 years, with the Manufacturing PMI increasing to 51.9 from 51.4 in June. However, new orders, export demand, and manufacturing employment remained weak, reflecting caution over a potential economic slowdown in the autumn.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian stocks declined again on Monday, led by South Korea, as continued selling pressure in AI-related technology shares outweighed easing Middle East tensions and lower oil prices.
The KOSPI plunged 5.6% after surging 18% on Friday. Samsung Electronics fell 7.2% despite reporting a sharp increase in semiconductor profits, while SK Hynix declined 7% as investors reassessed the outlook for the AI sector. The two stocks account for more than half of KOSPI’s market capitalization.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1% and the TOPIX declined 1.2%. Shares of Sony, Murata Manufacturing, and Renesas Electronics dropped, while Kioxia Holdings and TDK gained.
In China, the CSI 300 fell 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.5%, while the Hang Seng edged up 0.1%, supported by a more than 5% gain in Alibaba after launching its latest AI model and a more than 2% increase in Tencent shares.
• COMMODITIES :Oil prices fell on Monday after recording double-digit gains throughout July. Sentiment improved after U.S. President Donald Trump called off plans for an attack on Iran and said negotiations were ongoing, although Iran denied the claim. Brent crude fell 4.6% to USD83.89 per barrel, while WTI declined 5.0% to USD80.41 per barrel. Throughout July, Brent surged 23.6% and WTI gained 21.8%.
• INDONESIA : The IDX Composite (IHSG) closed relatively flat on Monday, declining 0.03% to 6,234.50. Market sentiment remained mixed, with foreign investors recording significant net foreign selling, particularly in conglomerate-related stocks. Nevertheless, the market has shown resilience against various negative sentiments (bad news), indicating that some risks have been priced in by investors.
On the other hand, the market still requires positive catalysts or fresh catalysts to drive further upside momentum. Without new catalysts, the IHSG may continue its consolidation phase following its previous gains.
Technically, 6,400 remains the key resistance level to watch. Meanwhile, the 6,200– 6,000 area serves as an important support zone to maintain a constructive consolidation trend for the IHSG.
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