Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed sharply higher on Thursday, driven by strong earnings from Microsoft and unchanged capital expenditure (capex) guidance, which revived sentiment in the AI sector. A relatively contained Fed-favored inflation measure (core PCE) also supported the market, while concerns over Middle East tensions and Meta’s stock decline were largely ignored by investors.
The S&P 500 rose 1.7% to 7,438.72, the Nasdaq Composite surged 2.8% to 25,061.95 (its best daily gain since June 15), and the Dow Jones gained 1.2% to 52,209.57.
Previously, the AI sector was pressured by concerns over high valuations, massive AI spending, and competition from China. Microsoft became the first hyperscaler not to raise its 2026 capex outlook, easing market concerns. In contrast, Meta raised the lower end of its 2026 capex guidance to USD130–145 billion from USD125–145 billion.
On economic data, U.S. initial jobless claims rose slightly to 197,000, below expectations of 201,000. Meanwhile, U.S. Q2 2026 GDP growth slowed to 1.5% from 2.1% in the previous quarter and came in below the 2.1% forecast. The core PCE price index increased 0.1% MoM and 3.3% YoY, with the monthly increase being the smallest since March last year, reinforcing optimism that inflationary pressures are easing.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks mostly closed higher on Thursday, supported by a wave of strong corporate earnings, particularly Shell’s significant profit increase, which offset uncertainty over the Fed’s rate outlook and fresh U.S. airstrikes on Iran. The STOXX 600 rose 0.8%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.5%, and France’s CAC 40 increased 0.9%, while the U.K.’s FTSE 100 declined 0.1% after the Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged.
Shell reported adjusted Q2 net profit of USD9.8 billion, more than double from the previous year and above market expectations, supported by strong operational performance and trading gains. However, global sentiment remained pressured by uncertainty over the Fed’s monetary policy outlook after keeping rates unchanged.
• ASIAN MARKET: Asian stocks mostly declined on Thursday, led by South Korea, as concerns over massive AI spending continued to weigh on sentiment despite strong earnings from Samsung and several U.S. technology companies. Markets also remained cautious after the Fed held rates steady without providing clear guidance on its next policy move.
South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.5% after initially surging nearly 5%, but reversed lower due to renewed pressure on semiconductor stocks. Samsung Electronics rose 2% after reporting strong Q2 earnings supported by AI chip demand, while SK Hynix declined around 4% despite posting record profits.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 1%, while the TOPIX fell 0.4%. In China, the Shanghai Composite declined 1.2%, the CSI 300 fell 2.2%, while the Hang Seng traded relatively flat.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices edged higher on Friday and remained on track for a monthly gain of more than 20%, driven by rising concerns over supply disruptions due to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and broader instability in the Middle East.
Brent rose 0.7% to USD89.64 per barrel, while WTI gained 0.6% to USD84.06 per barrel. However, both benchmarks remained on track for a weekly decline of around 7% after hopes for peace talks pressured prices earlier in the week.
Tensions escalated after U.S. strikes on Iranian military targets were met with Iranian missile attacks on U.S. positions and allies. The conflict also expanded to Egypt after a drone attack on gas vessels at Damietta Port raised concerns over key energy routes, including the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline. Threats to shipping in the Red Sea and tensions around the Strait of Hormuz further increased risks of global oil supply disruptions.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed Thursday’s trading session higher by +1.56% at 6,186.36. Market sentiment began to improve as foreign investors returned to record a net foreign buy of IDR100.81 billion. Fundamentally, the earnings season remains ongoing, with CPO sector companies generally reporting solid performance growth, while various negative factors that previously pressured the market are considered to have been priced in by investors.
However, investors remain cautious while awaiting clarity on the appointment of the new Bank Indonesia Governor. This clarity is expected to become one of the key catalysts determining market direction in the short term.
For today’s session, technically, the 6,000, 6,200, and 6,400 levels remain key areas to monitor. The JCI needs to maintain its movement above the 6,200 level to open opportunities for further gains toward the next resistance level, while 6,000 remains the key support level ifselling pressure returns.
As long as the JCI has not been able to break and sustain above that level, the index remains vulnerable to continuing its consolidation phase, with 6,000 as the main support area.
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