Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street closed lower on Monday, weighed down by a decline in technology stocks following a sharp selloff in the South Korean market, as well as the resurgence of geopolitical risk premium amid escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
The S&P 500 fell 0.8% to 7,516.68, the NASDAQ Composite dropped 1.6% to 25,873.18, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3% to 52,498.82.
Tensions in the Middle East intensified after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh military strikes, effectively ending the ceasefire and reigniting uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump stated that the Strait would remain open under U.S. protection, but announced that the U.S. would charge a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the waterway to cover security costs. Meanwhile, Iran insisted that the Strait would remain closed until stability is restored and the U.S. ceases its interference. The situation sent oil prices sharply higher.
In the technology sector, AI-related stocks came under renewed pressure amid concerns that valuations remain excessively high. The sharp correction in South Korea weighed on global sentiment, with the KOSPI plunging about 9%, while Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix fell 10.7% and 15.4%, respectively. SK Hynix’s U.S.-listed shares, which had debuted strongly on Nasdaq last Friday, also declined more than 9%.
Market participants are now awaiting this week’s U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports. Although June inflation is expected to ease, the renewed surge in oil prices due to heightened geopolitical risks could reinforce inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve also reaffirmed its commitment to maintaining price stability and said it stands ready to act decisively to keep long-term inflation expectations under control
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stock markets traded mixed on Monday amid rising tensions in the Middle East after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting investors to reduce exposure to risk assets.
The STOXX 600 slipped 0.01%, Germany’s DAX gained 0.08%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.31%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 edged down 0.01%. Energy stocks outperformed as oil prices climbed. Shell gained 2.3%, BP jumped 4.6%, and TotalEnergies advanced 3%.
Market sentiment was pressured by the collapse of the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz until further notice following an attack on a commercial vessel and subsequent U.S. retaliatory military strikes.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stock markets closed lower on Monday, led by a sharp decline in South Korean equities, as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices higher and reduced investors’ appetite for risk.
South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled more than 5%, with Samsung Electronics falling nearly 7% and SK Hynix plunging 11% amid continued weakness in semiconductorstocks. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.3% and the TOPIX declined 0.8%. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite lost 0.7%, the CSI 300 slipped 0.3%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng traded largely unchanged.
Investor sentiment deteriorated after Iran expanded missile and drone attacks on Gulf states in retaliation for U.S. military strikes and declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. However, U.S. President Donald Trump maintained that the shipping route remains open under U.S. protection.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices surged around 9% on Monday after the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran collapsed, with both countries asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns over global energy supplies.
President Donald Trump reimposed a naval blockade on Iran and announced that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz would be required to pay the U.S. for protection. As of 15:52 ET (19:52 GMT), Brent crude for September delivery jumped 9.2% to USD82.99 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for August delivery rose 8.8% to USD77.70 per barrel. The gains marked the largest one-day increases since March 12 and April 2, respectively.
Oil prices had previously returned to pre-war levels after the U.S. and Iran signed an interim peace agreement that reopened the Strait of Hormuz. However, the renewed conflict has reduced shipping activity and reignited inflation concerns. Kpler data showed vessel crossings through the Strait declined by about 52% from the previous week, although the U.S. said around 8.5 million barrels of oil still transited the waterway on Sunday. A prolonged disruption could increase shipping and insurance costs while forcing importers, particularly in Asia, to seek alternative oil supplies.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed higher on Monday, finishing above the 6,000 level at 6,037.84. The rally was supported by a positive catalyst after S&P Global Ratings reaffirmed Indonesia’s BBB sovereign credit rating with a stable outlook.
From a technical perspective, our view remains unchanged. The 6,000 level continues to serve as the key confirmation point for a return of bullish momentum. As long as the JCI is able to hold above this level, the outlook remains constructive. However, if the index falls back below 6,000, it is expected to move sideways with the potential to retest the 5,300– 5,400 support area should selling pressure intensify. Conversely, a sustained move above 6,000 would keep the path open for further gains toward 6,100 and 6,240.
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