Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : U.S. stocks closed lower on Wednesday in a choppy trading session after ending the second quarter and first half of the year with strong gains. Market sentiment was influenced by mixed labor market data and the first public remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh since the central bank adopted a more hawkish stance last month.
The S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 7,484.47, the Nasdaq Composite declined 0.7% to 26,040.03, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended relatively flat at 52,306.22.
Investors closely monitored labor market data for clues on the future path of interest rates. Challenger data showed U.S. layoffs fell 53% to 45,849 in June, the lowest level since December 2025. Meanwhile, ADP reported that private-sector employment increased by 98,000, below market expectations of 118,000.
Meanwhile, market attention also remained on U.S.-Iran peace negotiations. President Donald Trump said the “denuclearization of Iran” was progressing well. At the same time, Kevin Warsh signaled a possible shift in the Fed’s communication strategy, including reducing forward guidance on interest rates.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks traded mostly lower on Wednesday as investors awaited Eurozone inflation data and a panel discussion featuring global central bank leaders led by new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.
The STOXX 600 fell 0.3% after reaching a record high the previous day. Germany’s DAX rose 0.3%, while France’s CAC 40 declined 0.8% and the UK’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.2%.
Fresh data showed Eurozone inflation cooled faster than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, below the 3.0% consensus forecast. Core inflation also came in lower than expected, giving the ECB more room to soften its hawkish stance and easing concerns over the inflationary impact of higher energy prices caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict.
• ASIAN MARKET : Most Asian stock markets traded mixed on Wednesday. South Korea’s KOSPI led regional losses as investors locked in profits following a strong second-quarter rally, while Chinese and Japanese markets advanced on the back of encouraging manufacturing data.
In China, the CSI 300 gained 0.3% and the Shanghai Composite rose 0.6% after official data showed manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory in June. A private survey also indicated manufacturing activity continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace. Hong Kong markets were closed for a public holiday.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.6% and the TOPIX gained 0.4% after the Tankan survey showed improving sentiment among large manufacturers, while the manufacturing PMI remained in expansion territory.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s KOSPI fell 2%, marking the region’s biggest decline, despite June exports surging 70.9% year-on-year and the country’s trade surplus widening to USD 36.15 billion. SK Holdings tumbled more than 8% despite announcing a KRW 2 trillion renewable energy joint venture with KKR.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices declined on Thursday as concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East eased and expectations of ample global supply increased. WTI crude fell 0.85% to USD 68.00 per barrel, while Brent had yet to begin trading.
Sentiment improved after senior U.S. officials said negotiations with Iran were making progress, although talks remain at an early stage. In addition, crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have climbed back above 10 million barrels per day, easing concerns over supply disruptions.
Prices also came under pressure after the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. crude oil production reached a record 13.93 million barrels per day in April, reinforcing expectations of abundant global oil supplies.
• INDONESIA : The JCI rebounded 0.92% on Wednesday to close at 5,695.12. The market remains in a wait-and-see mode and continues to be fragile amid Indonesia’s current conditions, contributing to heightened volatility.
From a technical perspective, the outlook remains unchanged. If the JCI fails to reclaim the 6,000 level, the index could retest support around 5,300–5,400. However, if it breaks above 6,000, the next upside targets are 6,100 and 6,240.
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