XA Update Report | PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk. (CPIN) – Profitability Soars in 1Q26 , but Expect Normalization Ahead​

XA Update Report | PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk. (CPIN) – Profitability Soars in 1Q26 , but Expect Normalization Ahead​

 

By Steven Willie  (Research Associate)

23-Jun-2026

 

 

CPIN posted a record quarterly net profit of IDR 2.58tn in 1Q26, up +68% YoY (+13% QoQ), as revenue grew +13% YoY (-1% QoQ) to IDR 19.9tn on the back of elevated ASP and higher sales volume amid strong poultry prices. Growth was broad-based across segments, with DOC revenue surging +31% YoY (+3% QoQ), while Feed grew +8% YoY (+1% QoQ) and Broiler expanded +5% YoY (+1% QoQ). The Processed Chicken segment was comparatively muted, posting flat growth ~0% YoY (+5% QoQ), while the Others segment declined -19% YoY (-28% QoQ). Margins expanded across the board, with GPM, OPM, and NPM all improving YoY. Looking ahead, we expect poultry prices to normalize from their post-Lebaran peak amid lingering oversupply conditions, which could weigh on ASP and segment profitability through 3Q26.​

 

 

 

🔹 1Q26 Financial Performance​

• 1Q26 revenue hatches a strong start to 2026. CPIN’s 1Q26 revenue rose +13% YoY (-1%QoQ) to IDR 19.9tn, in line with expectations at 27% of our FY26F. The growth was primarilydriven by elevated average selling prices and higher sales volume, both supported by strongpoultry price dynamics throughout the quarter.​

 

 

• The Day-Old Chick segment flew the coop in 1Q26, outpacing every other business line.Growth was broad-based across segments, with DOC revenue surging +31% YoY (+3% QoQ),while Feed grew +8% YoY (+1% QoQ) and Broiler expanded +5% YoY (+1% QoQ). TheProcessed Chicken segment was comparatively muted, posting flat growth ~0% YoY (+5% QoQ),while the Others segment declined -19% YoY (-28% QoQ).​

 

 

• Margin expansion drives 1Q26 net profit to a record high. Gross profit margin improved to22% in 1Q26 (vs. 18% in 1Q25 / 22% in 4Q25), while operating profit margin rose to 17% (vs.12% in 1Q25 / 16% in 4Q25). This translated into a net profit margin of 13% (vs. 9% in 1Q25 /11% in 4Q25), with net profit growing significantly by +68% YoY (+13% QoQ) to a recordquarterly high of IDR 2.58tn — equivalent to 43% of our and 50% of consensus FY26F estimates.​

 

 

 

🔹 Near-Term Outlook: Post-Lebaran Normalization​

• Poultry prices have begun retreating from their seasonal peak, normalizing in the aftermathof the Lebaran period. LB prices have fallen ~12-13% ytd to around IDR 21,000 as of June2026, with the quarterly average price down -12% to approximately IDR 22,000 in 2Q26 (vs. IDR25,000 in 1Q26). Carcass broiler prices followed a similar trajectory, declining ~8% ytd to aroundIDR 35,000, with the quarterly average down -8% to approximately IDR 37,000 in 2Q26 (vs. IDR40,000 in 1Q26).​

 

 

• Supply overhang persists, driven by seasonal and structural factors. On the supply side, theDitjen PKH has flagged signs of oversupply in the post-Lebaran period, estimated at 5–10% abovenormal weekly demand — concentrated particularly in Java. The excess supply stems from twoconverging dynamics: (1) a normalization of consumer demand following the elevated Lebaranholiday period, and (2) simultaneous breeding cycles, where elevated chick-in placements aheadof Lebaran have led to peaking of poultry supply. Compounding the situation further is thepresence of seasonal local farmers who entered the poultry breeding cycle during the run-up toLebaran to capitalize on peak demand during the festive season, amplifying the supply overhangas they exit the market. We view the demand normalization phase will likely persist through3Q26, consistent with typical mid-year seasonal patterns. ​

 

 

 

🔹 BUY Recommendation with Target Price at IDR 5,050/Share​

 

• We maintain our BUY rating on CPIN with a TP of IDR 5,050/share. Our constructive long-term view on CPIN remains intact, anchored by its diversified business model spanning feed,breeding, and downstream processed products. While we acknowledge near-term margin pressureas poultry prices normalize from their post-Lebaran peak — with oversupply conditions likely topersist and weigh on ASP and segment profitability in the coming quarters — we view this as aseasonal dynamic rather than a structural deterioration in CPIN’s earnings power. With 1Q26 netprofit coming in at a record high and beating both our and consensus estimates, we believe thisearnings strength will more than offset the near-term softness in poultry prices on a full-yearbasis. ​

 

 

 

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NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia berizin dan diawasi Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK). Untuk informasi lebih lanjut, anda dapat menghubuni CS kami via email CSO@nhsec.co.id