Today’s Outlook :
• US MARKET : Wall Street surged sharply on Thursday after President Donald Trump stated that an agreement to end the war with Iran had been reached and that the final document could potentially be signed in Europe soon. Market optimism increased after Trump canceled planned military strikes against Iran, while peace negotiations between Washington and Tehran continued with diplomatic support from the United Arab Emirates.
The S&P 500 rose 1.7% to 7,393.06, the Dow Jones gained 1.9% to 50,848.38, and the NASDAQ jumped 2.5% to 25,809.66, recording its best daily performance in more than two months.
Media reports stated that the U.S. and Iran were still continuing discussions regarding a preliminary agreement, including a mechanism to release Iran’s frozen assets. The first direct meeting between UAE and Iranian security officials since the conflict began also signaled progress in de-escalation efforts.
On the corporate side, SpaceX is set to begin trading on the Nasdaq after pricing its IPO at USD 135 per share, raising USD 75 billion and becoming the largest IPO in U.S. history with a valuation of USD 1.77 trillion.
Meanwhile, Oracle shares fell nearly 8.6% after the company projected capital expenditure of up to USD 95 billion in fiscal year 2027 and planned to raise USD 40 billion in financing, despite reporting quarterly results that exceeded market expectations.
• EUROPEAN MARKET : European stocks advanced on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates in line with market expectations, while investors also monitored President Donald Trump’s latest threats against Iran. The STOXX 600 gained 0.6% after previously closing at its lowest level in more than three weeks. The UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, Germany’s DAX increased 0.1%, and Italy’s FTSE MIB climbed 1%, approaching record highs.
The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%, marking the first rate increase in nearly three years as policymakers attempted to control persistent inflationary pressures driven by geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs. The ECB also revised its inflation projections, expecting inflation to reach 3% this year, ease to 2.3% in 2027, and return to its 2% target by 2028. Inflation in the euro area remains above 3%, significantly exceeding the ECB’s target, despite continued economic stagnation.
• ASIAN MARKET : Asian stocks reversed early losses and edged higher on Thursday, supported by a recovery in technology stocks and hopes for a pause in the U.S.-Iran conflict.
Technology-heavy markets showed improvement, with South Korea’s KOSPI rising 0.2% and Japan’s Nikkei 225 gaining 0.1%. The KOSPI, which had earlier plunged as much as 4%, recovered some losses as chipmaker SK Hynix rebounded following reports of plans to triple its wafer production capacity. Previously, semiconductor stocks had been heavily pressured due to profit-taking after the strong AI-driven rally in May.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.3% due to weakness in major technology stocks. Alibaba shares declined more than 5% amid concerns over the company’s AI prospects, while JD.com fell more than 3% after local media reports stated that the company was under regulatory scrutiny over allegations of false advertising. Meanwhile, China’s CSI 300 fell 0.6% and the Shanghai Composite declined 0.3%, although both indexes recovered from their intraday lows.
• COMMODITIES : Oil prices extended losses during Asian trading on Friday and headed for a weekly decline after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that he had canceled planned military strikes against Iran and indicated that a diplomatic agreement was close.
Brent crude fell 1.5% to USD 89.05 per barrel, while WTI declined 1.6% to USD 86.34 per barrel. Both oil benchmarks had previously fallen nearly 3% on Thursday and were on track for weekly losses of more than 4%.
Market sentiment improved after Trump stated that discussions with Iran had reached the highest levels of leadership and that a peace agreement was nearing completion. This prompted traders to reduce the geopolitical risk premium that had previously been reflected in oil prices due to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
• INDONESIA : The JCI closed lower on Thursday at 5,886.03, pressured by weakness in conglomerate stocks such as TPIA and DSSA, despite support from banking stocks and other conventional large-cap stocks in the index.
The next resistance level is the psychological area of 6,000, and there is potential for the JCI to form a new base due to the late-week correction. Investors are advised to remain cautious amid ongoing market volatility, even though macroeconomic conditions have once again become a serious focus for the government.
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